Framed

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$3.64

Advertised RTP

89.39%

EV $3.25 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.84%

2,364 openings, odds method

Variance

26.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 83

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

129 openings · below min

7 days

95.16%±24.671,649 openings

30 days

101.84%±20.602,364 openings

since tracking started

101.84%±20.602,364 openings

-0.5%61.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	129	30.30%±88.2	—	odds
7d	1,649	95.16%±24.7	+0.5σ	odds
30d	2,364	101.84%±20.6	+1.2σ	odds
All	2,364	101.84%±20.6	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,364 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Breaking Bad XL Displateother	1 in 500	$230	14.1%	5	4.7	1.06×
Samurai Warrior L Graphite Frame Displateother	1 in 500	$199	12.2%	5	4.7	1.06×
Interstellar XL Displateother	1 in 500	$100	6.1%	5	4.7	1.06×
Pale Blue Dot L Displateother	1 in 500	$100	6.1%	9	4.7	1.90×
Terraria Boss Watercolor Gloss L Displateother	1 in 500	$100	6.1%	4	4.7	0.85×
Mike Tyson L Gloss Displateother	1 in 500	$100	6.1%	8	4.7	1.69×
Solar System L Gloss Displateother	1 in 500	$100	6.1%	5	4.7	1.06×
1987 F40 Red Gloss L Black Frame Displateother	1 in 500	$100	6.1%	6	4.7	1.27×
Toyota GT86 L Displateother	1 in 500	$89.00	5.5%	7	4.7	1.48×
Retro Beach Waves Gloss M Displateother	1 in 500	$79.00	4.9%	3	4.7	0.63×
The Fire M Textra Displateother	1 in 500	$64.00	3.9%	5	4.7	1.06×
Arthur M Displateother	1 in 500	$44.00	2.7%	4	4.7	0.85×
Bonfire M Displateother	1 in 500	$44.00	2.7%	5	4.7	1.06×
Pathetic Cat M Displateother	1 in 500	$44.00	2.7%	5	4.7	1.06×
Eyes Monochrome M Displateother	1 in 500	$44.00	2.7%	5	4.7	1.06×
Displate Magnetother	30.0%	$1.00	9.2%	712	709.2	1.00×
Displate Wall Stickerother	32.0%	$0.20	2.0%	773	756.5	1.02×
Displate Cleaning Wipeother	35.0%	$0.05	0.5%	798	827.4	0.96×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Breaking Bad XL Displateotherthejunespirit$3.64$23063.05x3d

Breaking Bad XL Displateother$3.64$23063.05x4d

Breaking Bad XL DisplateotherW H I T E • W O L F$3.64$23063.05x4d

Breaking Bad XL Displateother$3.64$23063.05x5d

Breaking Bad XL DisplateotherSavagePlays$3.64$23063.05x5d

Samurai Warrior L Graphite Frame Displateother$3.64$19954.59x1d

Samurai Warrior L Graphite Frame Displateother$3.64$19954.59x2d

Samurai Warrior L Graphite Frame Displateother$3.64$19954.59x4d

Samurai Warrior L Graphite Frame DisplateotherSavagePlays$3.64$19954.59x5d

Samurai Warrior L Graphite Frame Displateother$3.64$19954.59x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Displate Magnetother$3.64$1.000.27x3h

Displate Wall StickerotherRichSteve$3.64$0.200.05x3h

Displate Cleaning Wipeother$3.64$0.050.01x3h

Displate Magnetother$3.64$1.000.27x3h

Displate Cleaning WipeotherSickWhit95_CodeDGN$3.64$0.050.01x3h

Displate Cleaning Wipeother$3.64$0.050.01x3h

Displate Wall StickerotherSickWhit95_CodeDGN$3.64$0.200.05x3h

Displate Magnetother$3.64$1.000.27x4h

Displate Cleaning Wipeother$3.64$0.050.01x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.64	89.39%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $230 (63.05x)