Free Throw
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$528.24
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $472.77 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
61.88%
126 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Vuitton x NBA Ball in Basket Ball Grain Leather Black/Whiteother | 1 in 200 | $10.3K | 10.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Louis Vuitton x NBA Basketballother | 1 in 100 | $8,160 | 17.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| Travis Scott x Nike Basketballother | 1 in 80 | $1,560 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| Vlone x Dennis Rodman Basketball Green Cheetahother | 1 in 33 | $653 | 4.1% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| Wilson x OFF-WHITE Basketballother | 1 in 20 | $616 | 6.5% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| Uncut Gems Winning Bet Basketballother | 1 in 20 | $565 | 6.0% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| OVO x Wilson Basketball Black/Goldother | 1 in 13 | $488 | 7.7% | 4 | 9.4 | 0.42× |
| OVO x Wilson Mini Basketball Hoop Setother | 10.0% | $433 | 9.2% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| Diamond Supply Co. Spalding Basketballother | 20.0% | $347 | 14.7% | 23 | 25.2 | 0.91× |
| Chinatown Market x Puma Smiley Basketballother | 46.8% | $197 | 19.5% | 63 | 58.9 | 1.07× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $528 | 89.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $653 (1.24x)