Full DGNeracy

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$4.27

Advertised RTP

89.35%

EV $3.82 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

42.29%

2,907 openings, odds method

Variance

6866.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 4,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

348 openings · below min

7 days

2,253 openings · below min

30 days

2,907 openings · below min

since tracking started

2,907 openings · below min

-0.5%447.8%896.0%

Small sample. 2,907 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	348	24.90%±870.6	—	odds
7d	2,253	34.64%±342.2	—	odds
30d	2,907	42.29%±301.2	—	odds
All	2,907	42.29%±301.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,907 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tesla Model S Plaidother	1 in 100,000	$101K	26.4%	0	0.0	—
Subaru 2026 WRX Premiumother	1 in 100,000	$40.8K	10.7%	0	0.0	—
Rolex Datejust 36other	1 in 100,000	$22.9K	6.0%	0	0.0	—
2002 Pokemon Neo Destiny 1st Edition Shining Charizard #107 PSA 9 MINTother	1 in 50,000	$6,600	3.5%	0	0.1	—
Louis Vuitton 3 Watch Case Monogram Canvas Brownother	1 in 5,000	$1,649	8.6%	0	0.6	—
Balenciaga Casual Shorts Orange US Mother	1 in 3,333	$711	5.6%	1	0.9	—
Palm Angels Logo Print Swimming Shorts Black (US M)other	1 in 3,333	$574	4.5%	2	0.9	—
Elgato Stream Deck +, Whiteother	1 in 2,000	$269	3.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
Burger King $100 Gift Cardother	1 in 1,667	$100	1.6%	1	1.7	0.57×
DoorDash $30 Giftcardother	1 in 200	$30.00	3.9%	20	14.5	1.38×
Bang Energy Cotton Candy, Sugar-Free Energy Drink (12 Pack)other	1 in 200	$25.00	3.3%	9	14.5	0.62×
Case of Blue Moonsother	1 in 200	$12.00	1.6%	16	14.5	1.10×
Vape Juiceother	1 in 200	$12.00	1.6%	9	14.5	0.62×
Case of High Noonsother	1 in 200	$10.00	1.3%	12	14.5	0.83×
Full glass of beerother	1 in 62	$4.00	1.7%	46	46.8	0.98×
Watermelon Redbullother	1 in 37	$3.50	2.5%	78	78.2	1.00×
Half glass of beerother	1 in 33	$2.50	2.0%	116	87.4	1.33×
Zyn - Wintergreen 3mgother	90.0%	$0.50	11.8%	2,597	2616.3	0.99×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.