Funko Pop

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$7.03
Advertised RTP
89.40%
EV $6.28 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.85%
1,194 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
60 openings · below min
7 days
97.12%±12.271,107 openings
30 days
94.85%±11.811,194 openings
since tracking started
94.85%±11.811,194 openings
82.5%144.7%207.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h60153.61%±52.7—odds
7d1,10797.12%±12.3+1.2σodds
30d1,19494.85%±11.8+0.9σodds
All1,19494.85%±11.8+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,194 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Funko Pop! Animation One Piece Poster Gol D. Roger Summer Convention Edition Figure #1379other1 in 1,000$2584.1%21.21.68×
Funko Pop! NBA Michael Jordan (White Jersey) Footlocker Exclusive 10 inch Figure #76other1 in 500$1354.3%42.41.68×
Funko Gold Notorious B.I.G. in White Suit 12 Inch Vinyl Figureother1 in 250$76.004.8%34.80.63×
Funko Pop! Marvel Classics Spider-Man 25th Anniversary Figure #03Cother1 in 167$40.003.8%77.20.98×
Funko Pop! Moments: AC/DC - Angus Youngother1 in 125$37.204.7%89.60.84×
Funko Pop! Moment: Naruto: Shippuden - Pain vs Narutoother1 in 100$35.005.6%1211.91.01×
Funko Pop! Rides DLX: Batman's 85th Anniversary - Batman in Batmobileother1 in 100$31.705.0%1211.91.01×
Funko Pop! Deluxe Fusion - Blair Monster with Chase (Style May Vary)other1 in 100$30.004.8%1211.91.01×
Funko Pop! Albums: Panic! at The Disco - Viva Las Vengeanceother1 in 50$27.508.8%2623.91.09×
Funko Pop! Albums: Michael Jackson (Off The Wall)other1 in 50$25.008.0%2723.91.13×
Funko Pop! TV The Boys Homelander Levitating Multicolor Vinyl Collectible Action Figureother1 in 50$22.407.1%1723.90.71×
Funko Pop! Super: Star Wars - Darth Vaderother1 in 40$21.308.5%3329.91.11×
Edge-Sitter: Star Wars - Yodaother1 in 40$20.008.0%3329.91.11×
Edge-Sitter: Star Wars - Chewbaccaother1 in 40$19.998.0%3229.91.07×
Funko Pop! Animation: Spongebob Squarepants 25th Anniversary - Krusty Krab Pizza Spongebobother1 in 33$13.006.2%4035.81.12×
Funko Spirit Halloween Trick 'r Treat Sam POP! Figure Deluxeother1 in 17$5.004.8%7271.61.01×
Empty Funko Pop Boxother27.4%$0.753.3%348327.21.06×
Funko Pop Stickerother45.0%$0.050.4%506537.30.94×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Funko Pop Stickerother$7.03$0.050.01x
Empty Funko Pop Boxother$7.03$0.750.11x
Empty Funko Pop Boxother$7.03$0.750.11x
Empty Funko Pop Boxother$7.03$0.750.11x
Empty Funko Pop Boxother$7.03$0.750.11x
Funko Pop Stickerother$7.03$0.050.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.40%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$7.0389.40%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —