G-shock Fanboy

A box on Cases.gg (Watches), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$236.58

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $211.73 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.80%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

12 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

19.0%91.3%163.5%

Small sample. 18 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	12	95.19%±67.6	—	odds
30d	18	74.80%±55.2	—	odds
All	18	74.80%±55.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenixother	1 in 1,000	$3,550	1.7%	0	0.0	—
Casio G-Shock x Kithother	1 in 250	$2,640	5.0%	0	0.1	—
Casio G-SHOCK 40th Anniversary CARBON EDITIONother	1 in 500	$2,255	2.1%	0	0.0	—
Casio G-Shock MTGB3000 Seriesother	1 in 333	$1,480	2.1%	0	0.1	—
Casio G-Shock 40th Anniversary RECRYSTALLIZEDother	1 in 200	$1,155	2.7%	0	0.1	—
Casio G-Shock x One Piece GA-110JOP-1A4other	1 in 167	$860	2.4%	0	0.1	—
Casio G-Shock GA2100SRS-7Aother	1 in 40	$635	7.5%	1	0.5	—
Casio G-Shock x HIDDEN.NY Jewelry Casecontainer	1 in 56	$600	5.1%	0	0.3	—
Casio G-Shock CasiOak Sol IFL x The Dial Artist Studioother	1 in 125	$546	2.1%	0	0.1	—
Casio G-Shock GA-2100MNGother	1 in 38	$432	5.3%	0	0.5	—
Casio Digital G-Shock DW-6900JT-3other	10.0%	$400	18.9%	3	1.8	1.67×
Casio G-Shock x Coca-Cola DW5600CC23-4other	1 in 63	$344	2.6%	1	0.3	—
Casio G-Shock Ed Sheeranother	1 in 33	$330	4.7%	0	0.5	—
Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3other	10.0%	$250	11.8%	0	1.8	0.00×
Casio G-Shock GA2100SR-1Aother	1 in 25	$200	3.8%	0	0.7	—
Casio G-Shock LTP-V300D-2Aother	15.0%	$89.00	6.3%	4	2.7	1.48×
Casio G-Shock LTP-V007G-9Bother	15.0%	$73.00	5.2%	2	2.7	0.74×
Casio G-Shock MTP-1302D-7A1Vother	31.6%	$72.00	10.7%	7	5.7	1.23×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.