Game or Lame

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$1.28

Advertised RTP

89.03%

EV $1.14 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.63%

10.6K openings, odds method

Variance

96.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 246

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

55.63%±42.982,002 openings

7 days

81.76%±20.568,754 openings

30 days

81.63%±18.6710.6K openings

since tracking started

81.63%±18.6710.6K openings

12.0%57.5%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,002	55.63%±43.0	−1.5σ	odds
7d	8,754	81.76%±20.6	−0.7σ	odds
30d	10.6K	81.63%±18.7	−0.8σ	odds
All	10.6K	81.63%±18.7	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4080other	1 in 100,000	$1,760	1.5%	0	0.1	—
AMD Ryzen™ 9 7900X3Dother	1 in 20,000	$720	3.2%	1	0.5	—
EVGA 1000 GT 80 Plus Gold 1000W Fully Modular Power Supplyother	1 in 10,000	$490	4.3%	1	1.1	0.94×
HP Chromebook 14 Laptopother	1 in 10,000	$280	2.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
MSI Gaming GeForce GTX 1650other	1 in 10,000	$210	1.8%	1	1.1	0.94×
Sony PlayStation 2 Console - Black (Renewed)other	1 in 10,000	$200	1.8%	2	1.1	1.88×
NZXT H5 Flow RGB Compact ATX Mid-Tower PC Gaming Casecontainer	1 in 1,111	$165	13.0%	6	9.6	0.63×
Sony Original Playstation One Console (Renewed)other	1 in 2,500	$150	5.3%	3	4.3	0.71×
ASRock B760M Pro RS Motherboardother	1 in 2,500	$145	5.1%	5	4.3	1.18×
EVGA 750 N1 750W Power Supplyother	1 in 526	$90.00	15.0%	16	20.2	0.79×
$25 Steam Gift Cardother	1 in 400	$25.00	5.5%	27	26.6	1.02×
Crucial RAM 8GB DDR4 3200MHzother	1 in 333	$18.61	4.9%	31	31.9	0.97×
$10 Steam Gift Cardother	1 in 100	$10.00	8.8%	114	106.3	1.07×
$5 Steam Gift Cardother	1 in 100	$5.00	4.4%	115	106.3	1.08×
Terraria (PC) - Steam Gift - GLOBALother	1 in 50	$4.84	8.5%	197	212.6	0.93×
7 Days to Die (PC) - Steam Account - GLOBALother	1 in 40	$2.60	5.7%	267	265.8	1.00×
The Forest (PC) - Steam Account - GLOBALother	1 in 33	$1.85	4.9%	313	319.4	0.98×
Retro Off White Stickerother	89.5%	$0.05	3.9%	9,533	9519.9	1.00×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AMD Ryzen™ 9 7900X3Dother$1.28$720562.5x4d

EVGA 1000 GT 80 Plus Gold 1000W Fully Modular Power Supplyotherthejunespirit$1.28$490382.8x2d

MSI Gaming GeForce GTX 1650other$1.28$210164.1x1d

Sony PlayStation 2 Console - Black (Renewed)otherVxpiix$1.28$200156.3x14h

Sony PlayStation 2 Console - Black (Renewed)otherBatman053007$1.28$200156.3x3d

NZXT H5 Flow RGB Compact ATX Mid-Tower PC Gaming Casecontainer$1.28$165128.9x1d

NZXT H5 Flow RGB Compact ATX Mid-Tower PC Gaming Casecontainer$1.28$165128.9x2d

NZXT H5 Flow RGB Compact ATX Mid-Tower PC Gaming Casecontainer$1.28$165128.9x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Retro Off White Stickerother$1.28$0.050.04x14m

Retro Off White Stickerother$1.28$0.050.04x16m

$10 Steam Gift Cardother$1.28$10.007.81x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.28	89.03%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $720 (562.5x)