Giftcard Galore
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$3.65
Advertised RTP
89.48%
EV $3.27 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.10%
4,321 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,321 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber $100 Giftcardother | 1 in 333 | $100 | 9.2% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.93× |
| Mastercard $80 Prepaid Cardother | 1 in 250 | $80.00 | 9.8% | 21 | 17.3 | 1.21× |
| Bestbuy $50 Giftcardother | 1 in 143 | $50.00 | 10.7% | 30 | 30.2 | 0.99× |
| Sephora $50 Giftcardother | 1 in 143 | $50.00 | 10.7% | 38 | 30.2 | 1.26× |
| DoorDash $30 Giftcardother | 1 in 111 | $30.00 | 8.3% | 53 | 38.9 | 1.36× |
| Target $25 Giftcardother | 1 in 100 | $25.00 | 7.7% | 37 | 43.2 | 0.86× |
| Walmart $20 Giftcardother | 1 in 91 | $20.00 | 6.7% | 46 | 47.5 | 0.97× |
| Uber Eats $15 Giftcardother | 1 in 77 | $15.00 | 6.0% | 53 | 56.2 | 0.94× |
| $10 Steam Gift Cardother | 1 in 57 | $10.00 | 5.4% | 79 | 75.6 | 1.04× |
| Spotify $8 Giftcardother | 1 in 50 | $8.00 | 4.9% | 72 | 86.4 | 0.83× |
| Home Depot $6.5 Giftcardother | 1 in 50 | $6.50 | 4.0% | 81 | 86.4 | 0.94× |
| Netflix $5 Giftcardother | 1 in 40 | $5.00 | 3.8% | 111 | 108.0 | 1.03× |
| KFC $2.40 Giftcardother | 1 in 20 | $2.40 | 3.7% | 238 | 216.1 | 1.10× |
| Starbucks $2 Giftcardother | 1 in 16 | $2.00 | 3.9% | 274 | 274.4 | 1.00× |
| Unactivated $500 Amazon Giftcardother | 10.0% | $1.00 | 3.1% | 444 | 432.1 | 1.03× |
| Google Play $0.29 Giftcardother | 15.0% | $0.29 | 1.3% | 655 | 648.1 | 1.01× |
| Empty Airbnb Giftcardother | 20.0% | $0.08 | 0.5% | 883 | 864.2 | 1.02× |
| Empty Pizza Hut Giftcardother | 29.0% | $0.05 | 0.4% | 1,194 | 1253.1 | 0.95× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.65 | 89.48% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —