GOAT Contender

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$499.92

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $447.42 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

117.69%

202 openings, odds method

Variance

193.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 500

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

184 openings · below min

30 days

202 openings · below min

since tracking started

202 openings · below min

-0.5%162.3%325.0%

Small sample. 202 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	184	123.48%±200.7	—	odds
30d	202	117.69%±191.6	—	odds
All	202	117.69%±191.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 202 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
2017 National Treasures Green Patrick Mahomes II RC PATCH AUTO /15 #161 PSA 9other	1 in 10,000	$360K	8.0%	0	0.0	—
2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady ROOKIE AUTO DNA #144 PSA 9 MINTother	1 in 10,000	$360K	8.0%	0	0.0	—
2020 Panini Prizm Red Prizms Tom Brady AUTO DNA 10 1/3 #255 PSA 9 MINTother	1 in 2,500	$180K	16.1%	0	0.1	—
2000 Bowman Chrome Refractor Tom Brady ROOKIE #236 PSA 9 MINTother	1 in 2,500	$90K	8.0%	1	0.1	—
2017 National Treasures NFL Gear Patrick Mahomes II ROOKIE PATCH AUTO /25 PSA 10other	1 in 1,000	$62.5K	14.0%	0	0.2	—
Tom Brady Signed Expos M & N Jersey w/ inscription - LE 11/12 - Fanatics AUTHother	1 in 1,000	$44.4K	9.9%	0	0.2	—
Joe Montana, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes Autographed Duke Full Color Footballother	1 in 500	$6,000	2.7%	0	0.4	—
Tom Brady Patriots Autographed Authentic Pro Helmet w/ Multi Inscriptions /112other	1 in 500	$5,160	2.3%	0	0.4	—
Patrick Mahomes & Travis Kelce Autographed Lunar Eclipse Speed Authentic Helmetother	1 in 333	$3,600	2.4%	0	0.6	—
Tom Brady Montreal Expos Autographed Mitchell & Ness Gray Authentic Jerseyother	1 in 200	$3,360	3.8%	1	1.0	0.99×
Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jerseyother	1 in 100	$2,880	6.4%	3	2.0	1.49×
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Autographed Super Bowl LVIII Duke Footballother	1 in 100	$2,400	5.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTHother	1 in 67	$2,160	7.2%	5	3.0	1.65×
NFL PRO LINE Women's Patrick Mahomes Red Kansas City Chiefs Team Player Jerseyother	1 in 20	$156	1.7%	13	10.1	1.29×
Facsimile Autographed Tom Brady New England Blue Reprint Laser Auto Football Jersey Size Men's XLother	1 in 20	$100	1.1%	15	10.1	1.49×
POP Football: Patriots - Tom Brady (SB Champions LIII) Funko Vinyl Figure (Bundled with Compatible Box Protector Case)other	10.0%	$36.00	0.8%	16	20.2	0.79×
Funko Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs) NFL Pop! Series 6other	15.0%	$24.00	0.8%	41	30.3	1.35×
Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books)other	60.0%	$9.00	1.2%	107	121.2	0.88×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.