Grocey Shopping
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$6.26
Advertised RTP
89.40%
EV $5.60 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.75%
1,477 openings, odds method
Variance
22.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 34
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,477 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grey Goose 4.5L Bottle (Fake)other | 1 in 500 | $600 | 21.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| 28g of Saffronother | 1 in 200 | $100 | 8.9% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× |
| Shopping Cartother | 1 in 100 | $80.00 | 14.3% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.02× |
| Lambda Ultra Premium Extra Virgin Olive Oilother | 1 in 80 | $60.00 | 13.4% | 26 | 18.5 | 1.41× |
| Black Truffle Shavingsother | 1 in 67 | $33.00 | 8.8% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
| Ferrero Rocher Hazelnut Chocolatesother | 1 in 50 | $15.00 | 5.4% | 20 | 29.5 | 0.68× |
| Plant Based Burger Pattiesother | 1 in 40 | $12.00 | 5.4% | 44 | 36.9 | 1.19× |
| Arabica Coffee Beansother | 1 in 40 | $8.90 | 4.0% | 33 | 36.9 | 0.89× |
| Cooked Shrimpother | 1 in 40 | $8.00 | 3.6% | 42 | 36.9 | 1.14× |
| DiGiorno Thin Crust Frozen Pizzaother | 1 in 33 | $6.00 | 3.2% | 59 | 44.3 | 1.33× |
| Rice Krispiesother | 1 in 33 | $4.00 | 2.1% | 48 | 44.3 | 1.08× |
| Spaghettiosother | 1 in 25 | $2.20 | 1.6% | 57 | 59.1 | 0.96× |
| Doritosother | 1 in 13 | $2.00 | 2.7% | 111 | 110.8 | 1.00× |
| Milkother | 1 in 13 | $1.50 | 2.0% | 112 | 110.8 | 1.01× |
| Loaf of Breadother | 10.0% | $1.25 | 2.2% | 138 | 147.7 | 0.93× |
| Tomatoesother | 10.0% | $0.40 | 0.7% | 132 | 147.7 | 0.89× |
| Candyother | 10.0% | $0.07 | 0.1% | 156 | 147.7 | 1.06× |
| Tea Bagother | 31.1% | $0.02 | 0.1% | 454 | 458.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.26 | 89.40% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $600 (95.85x)