Haunted Haul
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$66.61
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $59.61 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.47%
165 openings, odds method
Variance
14.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 57
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 165 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 165 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gengar (WEB 047)other | 1 in 133 | $1,870 | 23.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× |
| Gengar (UNP)other | 1 in 100 | $1,800 | 30.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× |
| Gengar VMAX (sGG 020)other | 1 in 67 | $615 | 15.5% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| Gengar VMAX (FST 271)other | 1 in 50 | $360 | 12.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| Gengar & Mimikyu GX (sm9 103)other | 1 in 40 | $70.00 | 2.9% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| Sabrina's Gengar (G2)other | 1 in 40 | $65.00 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| Gengar ex (FL 108)other | 1 in 40 | $50.00 | 2.1% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| Team Challenge Season 3 "Gengar" Playmatother | 1 in 33 | $40.00 | 2.0% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| Sabrina's Gengar (GH 14)other | 1 in 27 | $30.00 | 1.9% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| Dark Gengar (N4)other | 1 in 27 | $30.00 | 1.9% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| Sabrina's Gengar (GC 29)other | 1 in 17 | $14.00 | 1.4% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× |
| Gengar & Mimikyu GX (TEU 53)other | 1 in 17 | $13.00 | 1.3% | 10 | 9.9 | 1.01× |
| Gengar ex (TEF 193)other | 1 in 13 | $8.00 | 1.0% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| Gengar VMAX (FST 157)other | 1 in 13 | $6.00 | 0.8% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.73× |
| Gengar (LOR TG06)other | 10.0% | $3.00 | 0.5% | 24 | 16.5 | 1.45× |
| Gengar ex (TEF 104)other | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.2% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| Gengar (PAF 057)other | 10.0% | $0.09 | 0.0% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× |
| Gengar (MEW 094)other | 19.8% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 36 | 32.6 | 1.10× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $66.61 | 89.49% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $1,870 (28.07x)