Helmet Head

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$71.55

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $64.03 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.56%

212 openings, odds method

Variance

20.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

172 openings · below min

30 days

212 openings · below min

since tracking started

212 openings · below min

-0.5%346.3%693.0%

Small sample. 212 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	332.87%±359.5	—	odds
7d	172	77.75%±67.2	—	odds
30d	212	103.56%±60.5	—	odds
All	212	103.56%±60.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tom Brady Patriots Autographed Authentic Pro Helmet w/ Multi Inscriptions /112other	1 in 1,000	$5,160	8.1%	0	0.2	—
Patrick Mahomes & Travis Kelce Autographed Lunar Eclipse Speed Authentic Helmetother	1 in 1,000	$3,600	5.6%	0	0.2	—
Charles Woodson Packers Signed & Inscribed Riddell Speed Authentic Helmet LE /21other	1 in 500	$2,200	6.9%	1	0.4	—
Griese, Marino, Tagovailoa Dolphins Signed Speed Lunar Helmet LE /22other	1 in 333	$1,950	9.1%	2	0.6	—
Aaron Rodgers Packers Signed & Inscribed 2001 Season Speed Authentic Helmetother	1 in 333	$1,560	7.3%	0	0.6	—
Josh Allen Bills Signed Riddell Speed Lunar Eclipse Alternate Authentic Helmetother	1 in 200	$1,450	11.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Marshawn Lynch Seahawks Signed Riddell Eclipse Alternate Speed Helmetother	1 in 200	$1,320	10.3%	2	1.1	1.89×
Micah Parsons Cowboys Signed & Inscribed Riddell Flash Speed Authentic Helmetother	1 in 200	$1,060	8.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals Autographed 2022 Alternate Riddell Replica Helmetother	1 in 200	$1,020	8.0%	1	1.1	0.94×
Jason Witten Cowboys Signed & Inscribed 2022 Salute to Service Helmet LE /6other	1 in 200	$960	7.5%	2	1.1	1.89×
Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers Autographed Speed Authentic Helmetother	1 in 200	$880	6.9%	2	1.1	1.89×
Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmetother	1 in 200	$300	2.3%	3	1.1	2.83×
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins Autographed Riddell Speed Mini Helmetother	1 in 200	$300	2.3%	1	1.1	0.94×
Dallas Cowboys Riddell NFL Speed Mini Helmetother	1 in 50	$42.00	1.3%	7	4.2	1.65×
WILSON NFL Super Grip Composite Footballother	1 in 33	$30.00	1.4%	10	6.4	1.57×
New England Patriots Keychainother	15.0%	$6.00	1.4%	42	31.8	1.32×
Las Vegas Raiders Keychainother	25.0%	$3.00	1.2%	42	53.0	0.79×
Dallas Cowboys Keychainother	50.0%	$1.00	0.8%	97	106.0	0.92×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.