Hinata’s Spike

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$20.04

Advertised RTP

89.47%

EV $17.93 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

113.31%

276 openings, odds method

Variance

8.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

114.97%±38.53210 openings

30 days

113.31%±33.61276 openings

since tracking started

113.31%±33.61276 openings

76.0%274.5%473.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	311.38%±161.2	—	odds
7d	210	114.97%±38.5	+1.3σ	odds
30d	276	113.31%±33.6	+1.4σ	odds
All	276	113.31%±33.6	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Haikyuu × MIKASA Limited Collaboration Volleyball Karasuno Nekoma Model Set of 2other	1 in 400	$880	12.3%	0	0.7	—
Haikyu!! - Tobio Kageyama ARTFX J 1/8 Scale Figureother	1 in 100	$225	12.5%	6	2.8	2.17×
Haikyu!! Season 4 To the Top Premium Box Set Blu-rayother	1 in 100	$225	12.5%	8	2.8	2.90×
Haikyu!! - Kenma Kozume 1/8 Scale ARTFX J Figureother	1 in 100	$193	10.8%	3	2.8	1.09×
Haikyu!! Season 4 To the Top Blu-rayother	1 in 50	$69.00	7.7%	7	5.5	1.27×
Haikyuu!! Volleyball Court Displateother	1 in 50	$58.00	6.5%	2	5.5	0.36×
Haikyu!! - Karasuno Fight Framed Printother	1 in 33	$30.00	5.0%	13	8.3	1.57×
Haikyu!! - Figural Bag Clip Setother	1 in 33	$25.00	4.2%	7	8.3	0.85×
Funko Pop! Animation: Haikyu! - Shoyo Hinataother	1 in 33	$19.00	3.2%	10	8.3	1.21×
Haikyu!! - Karasuno Team T-Shirtother	1 in 20	$16.00	4.5%	19	13.8	1.38×
Haikyu!! - Karasuno Team Mouse Padother	1 in 20	$15.00	4.2%	9	13.8	0.65×
Haikyu!! - Iwaizumi 6 Inch Plushother	1 in 20	$11.00	3.1%	11	13.8	0.80×
Haikyu!! - Karasuno Group Mugother	1 in 13	$8.00	3.3%	18	20.7	0.87×
Haikyu!! - Shoyo Hinata Crow 5 Inch Plushother	1 in 13	$6.00	2.5%	15	20.7	0.72×
Haikyu!! - Koshi Sugawara Nendoroid Pinpin	10.0%	$3.60	2.0%	33	27.6	1.20×
Haikyuu Sticker Pack of 50 Stickersother	12.5%	$3.00	2.1%	34	34.5	0.99×
Haikyu!! - Kozume Cat Keychainother	15.0%	$2.20	1.8%	36	41.4	0.87×
Haikyu!! Lanyardother	16.3%	$2.00	1.8%	45	44.9	1.00×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Haikyu!! - Kozume Cat Keychainother$20.04$2.200.11x1h

Haikyu!! - Figural Bag Clip Setother$20.04$25.001.25x1h

Haikyu!! Lanyardother$20.04$2.000.10x1h

Haikyu!! - Shoyo Hinata Crow 5 Inch Plushother$20.04$6.000.30x1h

Haikyu!! - Koshi Sugawara Nendoroid Pinpin$20.04$3.600.18x1h

Haikyu!! Season 4 To the Top Blu-rayotherFamiChiki$20.04$69.003.44x1h

Haikyuu Sticker Pack of 50 Stickersother$20.04$3.000.15x6h

Haikyu!! - Karasuno Group Mugother$20.04$8.000.40x6h

Haikyu!! - Kenma Kozume 1/8 Scale ARTFX J Figureother$20.04$1939.63x6h

Haikyu!! Season 4 To the Top Premium Box Set Blu-rayother$20.04$22511.23x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$20.04	89.47%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —