Holiday Cheer
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$1.03
Advertised RTP
89.30%
EV $0.92 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.68%
2,742 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.30% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (67.77% – 87.58%, 2,742 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,742 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Womens Christmas Pajamasother | 1 in 200 | $24.00 | 13.0% | 7 | 13.7 | 0.51× |
| DIY Ornament Crafting Kitother | 1 in 200 | $20.00 | 10.9% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× |
| Premium Red Wrapping Paperother | 1 in 125 | $9.20 | 8.0% | 20 | 21.9 | 0.91× |
| Christmas Teddy Bear Plushother | 1 in 100 | $8.50 | 9.2% | 26 | 27.4 | 0.95× |
| Reindeer Antlersother | 1 in 100 | $8.00 | 8.7% | 21 | 27.4 | 0.77× |
| Reindeer Slippersother | 1 in 83 | $6.00 | 7.8% | 36 | 32.9 | 1.09× |
| Miniature Decorative Christmas Stockingsother | 1 in 80 | $5.00 | 6.8% | 32 | 34.3 | 0.93× |
| Christmas Themed Washi Tapeother | 1 in 67 | $3.60 | 5.9% | 34 | 41.1 | 0.83× |
| Christmas Reusable Strawsother | 1 in 57 | $3.00 | 5.7% | 43 | 48.0 | 0.90× |
| Christmas Confettiother | 1 in 50 | $2.50 | 5.4% | 54 | 54.8 | 0.98× |
| Cadbury Hot Chocolate Drink Powder Mixother | 1 in 29 | $1.50 | 5.7% | 97 | 96.0 | 1.01× |
| Red Christmas Gift Bowother | 1 in 29 | $1.00 | 3.8% | 116 | 96.0 | 1.21× |
| Festive Cupcake Linersother | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 2.4% | 216 | 205.7 | 1.05× |
| Red Christmas Ornamentother | 1 in 13 | $0.25 | 2.0% | 205 | 205.7 | 1.00× |
| Christmas Sticker Packother | 12.5% | $0.10 | 1.4% | 341 | 342.8 | 0.99× |
| Christmas Tree Eraserother | 12.5% | $0.10 | 1.4% | 329 | 342.8 | 0.96× |
| Gingerbread Man Cookie Cutterother | 20.0% | $0.05 | 1.1% | 558 | 548.4 | 1.02× |
| Sour Cherry Candy Caneother | 21.5% | $0.03 | 0.7% | 597 | 589.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.03 | 89.30% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —