Home Gym

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$147.61

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $132.10 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.88%

72 openings, odds method

Variance

6.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

66 openings · below min

30 days

72 openings · below min

since tracking started

72 openings · below min

46.5%108.5%170.5%

Small sample. 72 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	66	110.66%±59.4	—	odds
30d	72	103.88%±56.8	—	odds
All	72	103.88%±56.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Peloton Treadother	1 in 200	$3,600	13.6%	1	0.4	—
Peloton Indoor Exercise Bikes, Original Peloton Bike and Bike+other	1 in 100	$1,600	12.1%	0	0.7	—
Elliptical Machineother	1 in 67	$1,430	16.2%	2	1.1	1.85×
NordicTrack T Seriesother	1 in 50	$965	14.6%	1	1.4	0.69×
ProForm 50 Lb. Rapid Strike Dumbbell Setother	1 in 50	$329	5.0%	1	1.4	0.69×
MERACH Under Desk Elliptical Machine for Homeother	1 in 33	$240	5.5%	3	2.2	1.39×
FLYBIRD Weight Benchother	1 in 20	$196	7.4%	5	3.6	1.39×
CAP Barbell Dumbbell Rack - 3-Tier for 5-50LBother	1 in 20	$180	6.8%	2	3.6	0.56×
Barbell Weight Set for Liftingother	1 in 20	$155	5.9%	2	3.6	0.56×
Optimum Nutrition Gold Standard 100% Whey Protein Powderother	1 in 20	$95.00	3.6%	2	3.6	0.56×
CAP Barbell Rubber Olympic Bumper Plate - 55lbs - Singleother	1 in 20	$80.00	3.0%	3	3.6	0.83×
CTRL Meal Replacement Shake with Real Cereal Pieces – Cocoa Crunchother	1 in 20	$44.00	1.7%	2	3.6	0.56×
Peloton Light Weights \| Set of Two Sweat-Proof Weights - 3lbother	1 in 20	$30.00	1.1%	4	3.6	1.11×
Optimum Nutrition Micronized Creatine Monohydrate Powderother	1 in 20	$24.94	0.9%	2	3.6	0.56×
Peloton Glass Water Bottle \| 16 oz.other	1 in 20	$21.00	0.8%	2	3.6	0.56×
CTRL - Trademark Shakerother	1 in 20	$12.94	0.5%	1	3.6	0.28×
Amazon Basics Jump Ropeother	10.0%	$8.79	0.7%	12	7.2	1.67×
Protein Barother	30.0%	$2.50	0.6%	27	21.6	1.25×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.