Hopes and Dreams
A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$4.61
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $4.14 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
120.51%
5,141 openings, odds method
Variance
81.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 167
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.77% – 145.25%, 5,141 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,141 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1000 Voucherother | 1 in 1,000 | $1,000 | 24.1% | 13 | 5.1 | 2.53× |
| $500 Voucherother | 1 in 500 | $500 | 24.1% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× |
| $250 Voucherother | 1 in 333 | $250 | 18.1% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.10× |
| $100 Voucherother | 1 in 250 | $100 | 9.7% | 18 | 20.6 | 0.88× |
| $50 Voucherother | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 12.1% | 61 | 51.4 | 1.19× |
| $20 Voucherother | 1 in 100 | $20.00 | 4.8% | 56 | 51.4 | 1.09× |
| $10 Voucherother | 1 in 100 | $10.00 | 2.4% | 35 | 51.4 | 0.68× |
| $5 Voucherother | 1 in 100 | $5.00 | 1.2% | 48 | 51.4 | 0.93× |
| $3 Voucherother | 1 in 100 | $3.00 | 0.7% | 64 | 51.4 | 1.24× |
| $2 Voucherother | 1 in 50 | $2.00 | 1.0% | 96 | 102.8 | 0.93× |
| $1 Voucherother | 1 in 50 | $1.00 | 0.5% | 103 | 102.8 | 1.00× |
| $0.50 Voucherother | 1 in 20 | $0.50 | 0.6% | 255 | 257.1 | 0.99× |
| $0.25 Voucherother | 1 in 20 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 252 | 257.1 | 0.98× |
| $0.10 Voucherother | 1 in 20 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 250 | 257.1 | 0.97× |
| $0.05 Voucherother | 1 in 20 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 269 | 257.1 | 1.05× |
| $0.01 Voucherother | 70.0% | $0.01 | 0.2% | 3,596 | 3598.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.61 | 89.85% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $1,000 (216.9x)