House Warming
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$53.15
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $47.57 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.78%
348 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novogratz Brittany Sofa Futonother | 1 in 50 | $372 | 15.6% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| Smart Humidifier for Homeother | 1 in 33 | $260 | 16.4% | 18 | 10.4 | 1.72× |
| Weber Original Kettle 22-Inch Charcoal Grillother | 1 in 20 | $195 | 20.5% | 27 | 17.4 | 1.55× |
| Silonn Ice Maker Countertopother | 1 in 20 | $145 | 15.2% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× |
| BELLA XL Electric Ceramic Titanium Griddleother | 10.0% | $64.00 | 13.5% | 35 | 34.8 | 1.01× |
| Johnnie Walker Black Label 12-Year-Old (750ml) (Fake)other | 10.0% | $38.00 | 8.0% | 27 | 34.8 | 0.78× |
| Wooden Wall Art Decorother | 10.0% | $24.00 | 5.0% | 40 | 34.8 | 1.15× |
| Bedroom Blackout Curtainsother | 10.0% | $18.60 | 3.9% | 37 | 34.8 | 1.06× |
| Bonsenkitchen Powerful Milk Frother for Coffeeother | 10.0% | $7.00 | 1.5% | 36 | 34.8 | 1.03× |
| Wall-Mounted Kitchen Garbage Bag Organizerother | 15.0% | $1.10 | 0.3% | 43 | 52.2 | 0.82× |
| Wine Corkother | 20.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 65 | 69.6 | 0.93× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.15 | 89.50% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —