I Figured

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$11.88

Advertised RTP

89.46%

EV $10.63 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.05%

329 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86 openings · below min

7 days

80.17%±19.11299 openings

30 days

80.05%±18.22329 openings

since tracking started

80.05%±18.22329 openings

47.0%83.3%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	86	83.35%±35.6	—	odds
7d	299	80.17%±19.1	−1.0σ	odds
30d	329	80.05%±18.2	−1.0σ	odds
All	329	80.05%±18.2	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 329 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Nendoroid Foreigner/Yang Guifei Figureother	1 in 71	$75.00	9.9%	1	4.6	0.22×
Nendoroid Aang Figureother	1 in 71	$60.00	7.9%	6	4.6	1.30×
Nendoroid Papyrus Figureother	1 in 71	$55.00	7.2%	4	4.6	0.87×
Nendoroid Sans Figureother	1 in 71	$55.00	7.2%	6	4.6	1.30×
Nendoroid Yunyun Figureother	1 in 71	$54.00	7.1%	4	4.6	0.87×
Nendoroid Snow Miku: Winter Delicacy Ver. Figureother	1 in 71	$53.00	7.0%	4	4.6	0.87×
Nendoroid Primal Demon Diablo Figureother	1 in 71	$50.00	6.6%	5	4.6	1.09×
Nendoroid Tsunomaki Watame Figureother	1 in 71	$50.00	6.6%	3	4.6	0.65×
Nendoroid Kevin Figureother	1 in 71	$47.00	6.2%	4	4.6	0.87×
Nendoroid Sakura Haruno Figureother	1 in 71	$46.00	6.1%	5	4.6	1.09×
Nendoroid Motoko Kusanagi: S.A.C. Ver. Figureother	1 in 71	$43.00	5.7%	3	4.6	0.65×
Nendoroid Tohka Yatogami: School Uniform Ver. Figureother	1 in 71	$40.00	5.3%	6	4.6	1.30×
Nendoroid Shisui Uchiha Figureother	1 in 71	$38.00	5.0%	4	4.6	0.87×
Nendoroid Rei Ayanami: Plugsuit Ver. Figureother	1 in 71	$38.00	5.0%	3	4.6	0.65×
Nendoroid Harmonia Bloom Glass Eye Series: Summerother	10.0%	$2.15	2.0%	36	32.9	1.09×
Nendoroid More Bean Bag Chairother	17.5%	$1.00	1.6%	57	57.6	0.99×
Nendoroid More Jujutsu Kaisen Design Containerother	25.0%	$0.80	1.9%	84	82.3	1.02×
Nendoroid More Skateboardother	27.9%	$0.65	1.7%	94	91.8	1.02×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nendoroid More Skateboardother$11.88$0.650.05x2h

Nendoroid More Jujutsu Kaisen Design Containerother$11.88$0.800.07x2h

Nendoroid More Skateboardother$11.88$0.650.05x2h

Nendoroid Sans Figureotherlala$11.88$55.004.63x2h

Nendoroid More Jujutsu Kaisen Design Containerother$11.88$0.800.07x2h

Nendoroid Tohka Yatogami: School Uniform Ver. Figureother$11.88$40.003.37x2h

Nendoroid More Skateboardother$11.88$0.650.05x2h

Nendoroid More Bean Bag Chairother$11.88$1.000.08x2h

Nendoroid Harmonia Bloom Glass Eye Series: Summerotherlala$11.88$2.150.18x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.88	89.46%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —