Jordan 4
A box on Cases.gg (Nike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$183.67
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $164.38 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.39%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 89.50% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —