Jumpman Mystery

A box on Cases.gg (Nike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$38.96

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $34.87 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

24.31%

607 openings, odds method

Variance

130.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 500

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80 openings · below min

7 days

470 openings · below min

30 days

607 openings · below min

since tracking started

607 openings · below min

-0.5%150.8%302.0%

Small sample. 607 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	80	51.14%±250.0	—	odds
7d	470	26.67%±103.2	—	odds
30d	607	24.31%±90.8	—	odds
All	607	24.31%±90.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 607 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Jordan 1 Retro High Dior (US 8)other	1 in 1,429	$10.2K	20.6%	0	0.4	—
Jordan 5 Retro Tokyo T23 (US 12)other	1 in 2,000	$9,300	13.3%	0	0.3	—
Jordan 3 Retro Oregon Ducks Pit Crew White (US 11)other	1 in 1,250	$9,185	21.1%	0	0.5	—
Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 7)other	1 in 1,111	$2,400	6.2%	0	0.5	—
Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Travis Scott Mocha (US 7)other	1 in 1,000	$1,390	4.0%	1	0.6	—
Jordan 1 Retro High OG Black (US 9)other	1 in 769	$1,305	4.9%	0	0.8	—
Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Travis Scott Black Phantom (US 11)other	1 in 909	$1,150	3.6%	0	0.7	—
Jordan 1 Retro High OG Sail (US 7)other	1 in 625	$891	4.1%	0	1.0	—
Jordan 4 Retro University Blue (US 9)other	1 in 500	$630	3.6%	2	1.2	1.65×
Jordan 4 Retro SEBlack Canvas (US 7)other	1 in 476	$556	3.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
Jordan 4 Retro SBPine Green (US 7)other	1 in 500	$500	2.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
Jordan 4 RetroThunder (2023) (US 7)other	1 in 455	$389	2.5%	2	1.3	1.50×
Jordan 4 RetroMilitary Blue (2024) (US 10)other	1 in 455	$240	1.5%	2	1.3	1.50×
Jordan 1 Low Black University Blue (US 7)other	1 in 400	$170	1.2%	4	1.5	2.64×
Jordan 1 Mid University Blue Black (US 7)other	1 in 435	$160	1.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
Jordan 1 Retro High OG Mauve (US 10)other	1 in 385	$99.00	0.7%	1	1.6	0.63×
Jordan 1 Retro Low OG University Red (US 8)other	1 in 357	$91.00	0.7%	1	1.7	0.59×
Jordan 1 Low OG Metallic Silver (US 9)other	1 in 357	$80.00	0.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
Jordan Keychainother	1 in 20	$5.00	0.7%	33	30.4	1.09×
Jordan Stickerother	25.4%	$2.00	1.5%	167	153.9	1.09×
$1 Voucherother	66.5%	$1.00	1.9%	393	403.7	0.97×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.