Kaws

A box on Cases.gg (KAWS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$110.13
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $98.57 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.88%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
6 openings · below min
7 days
26 openings · below min
30 days
38 openings · below min
since tracking started
38 openings · below min
-0.5%93.3%187.0%

Small sample. 38 openings and 12.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h675.06%±111.3—odds
7d2673.62%±53.5—odds
30d3873.88%±44.2—odds
All3873.88%±44.2—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
KAWS Pinocchio & Jiminy Cricket Vinyl FigureMultiother1 in 10,000$8,5090.9%00.0—
KAWS Astro Boy Vinyl Figure Redother1 in 5,000$4,2350.9%00.0—
KAWS Holiday Space FigureGold/Black/Silver Setother1 in 5,000$3,7200.8%00.0—
KAWS Separated Vinyl Figure Setother1 in 2,000$1,9761.0%00.0—
KAWS Cereal Monsters Frute Brute Figureother1 in 667$7561.2%00.1—
KAWS Companion Open Edition Vinyl FigureBrownother1 in 667$7501.1%00.1—
KAWS Cereal Monsters Franken Berry Figureother1 in 1,000$6800.7%00.0—
KAWS BFF Open Edition Vinyl FigureBlackother1 in 278$6002.2%00.1—
KAWS Seeing/Watching Plush Grey/Blueother1 in 100$5555.6%00.4—
KAWS Holiday Japan Vinyl FigureBrownother1 in 500$5481.1%00.1—
KAWS KACHAMUKKU Vinyl Figure Green/Redother1 in 278$5151.9%00.1—
KAWS For Kid Cudi Moon Man Back Print Crewneck Sweatshirt Vintage Black (US M)other1 in 135$4203.2%00.3—
Human Made x KAWS Graphic II T-shirt Black (US M)other1 in 204$3901.9%00.2—
KAWS Tokyo First Companion Keychain Set (2021) Black/Brown/Greyother1 in 67$3104.7%10.6—
KAWS Brooklyn Museum TIDE Posterother1 in 83$1702.1%00.5—
KAWS x The North Face Tee Bolt Blue (US M)other1 in 72$1702.4%10.5—
KAWS x Uniqlo x Sesame Street Group #2 Tee Black (US M)other1 in 67$1602.4%00.6—
KAWS x Uniqlo x Peanuts Snoopy Plush (Medium) Whiteother1 in 71$1502.1%00.5—
KAWS For Kid Cudi Moon Man GID Tee Vintage Black (US M)other1 in 133$1000.8%00.3—
KAWS x Uniqlo x Peanuts Snoopy Plush (Medium)Blackother1 in 25$97.003.9%31.51.97×
KAWS Sesame Street Uniqlo Cookie Monster Plush ToyBlueother1 in 14$91.006.5%42.71.50×
KAWS x Uniqlo Companion Tee Pink (US S)other10.0%$83.008.4%33.80.79×
KAWS Sesame Street Uniqlo Elmo Plush ToyRedother15.0%$80.0012.2%65.71.05×
KAWS x Uniqlo Companion Tee Pink (US XS)other25.0%$65.0016.5%119.51.16×
KAWS x Cactus Plant Flea Market T-shirt Black (US S)other1 in 38$64.001.7%21.0—
KAWS x Uniqlo UT Short Sleeve Graphic T-shirt (US Sizing)Black (US XS)other25.0%$55.0014.0%79.50.74×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$11089.50%26
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —