Last Bet
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$213.18
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $190.79 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
143.96%
60 openings, odds method
Variance
7.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 60 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTWother | 1 in 50 | $3,108 | 32.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake)other | 1 in 50 | $2,400 | 25.2% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.17× |
| Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Blackother | 1 in 50 | $1,282 | 13.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Supreme Patchwork Leather Duffel Bag Blackother | 1 in 50 | $792 | 8.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| Clay Poker Chips Set - 500 Pieceother | 1 in 50 | $180 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| SKG Smart Watchother | 15.0% | $125 | 9.8% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| Bearbrick Bicycle Playing Cards Poker Setother | 15.0% | $62.00 | 4.9% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| Packers Tabletop Stackers Block Gameother | 30.0% | $24.00 | 3.8% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.06× |
| Tissue Paperother | 30.0% | $1.00 | 0.2% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.06× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $213 | 89.50% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $3,108 (14.58x)