Luxe White

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$203.81
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $182.41 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
52.64%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
35.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
48 openings · below min
30 days
78 openings · below min
since tracking started
78 openings · below min
-0.5%100.8%202.0%

Small sample. 78 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d4832.70%±168.5—odds
30d7852.64%±132.2—odds
All7852.64%±132.2—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Hermès Special Order (HSS) Birkin 30 White and Black Clemence Brushed Gold Hardwareother1 in 2,000$43.8K12.0%00.0—
Mercedes-Benz G 300 1982other1 in 2,000$18.9K5.2%00.0—
Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Mid By Virgil Abloh White (US 10)other1 in 1,000$12.3K6.7%00.1—
Moncler Maya 70 by Palm Angels Jacket Bright White MONCLER 2other1 in 1,000$8,7504.8%00.1—
OFF-WHITE Rimowa See Through 36L Case Whiteother1 in 500$4,8005.3%00.2—
Supreme x Louis Vuitton Box Logo Tee White (US XL)other1 in 200$2,5306.9%00.4—
Gucci Cotton Jersey Hooded Sweatshirt Off White (US L)other1 in 100$1,4888.2%10.8—
Converse Chuck Taylor All Star 70 Hi Ambush White (US 9)other1 in 100$9875.4%00.8—
SAMSUNG Galaxy Watch Ultra 47mm, Titanium Whiteother1 in 50$7808.6%31.61.92×
OFF-WHITE Arrows-Motif Cotton T-shirt White (US M)other1 in 50$6316.9%11.60.64×
A Bathing Ape Bape Sta #2 White Patentother1 in 50$5005.5%21.61.28×
Supreme Box Logo L/S Tee White (US S)other1 in 50$3904.3%01.60.00×
FTP Logo Skateboard Deck White/Blackother1 in 50$2002.2%11.60.64×
Nike Air Force 1 Low Supreme White (US 11)other1 in 50$1852.0%01.60.00×
Hoka One One Bondi 9 White (US 10.5)other1 in 50$1802.0%41.62.56×
KAWS x Uniqlo Flayed Tee White (US XL)other1 in 33$97.001.6%22.30.85×
Casio G-Shock MTP-1302D-7A1Vother15.0%$72.005.9%1111.70.94×
Men's San Francisco 49ers New Era White 2024 Salute To Service Digital Camo 39THIRTY Flex Hatother15.0%$39.003.2%1411.71.20×
BAPE Beach Japan 2022 Exclusive Pack Towel Whiteother15.0%$28.002.3%1011.70.85×
Pack Of 3 White Men's Socksother15.0%$8.990.7%1511.71.28×
White Nike Dunk Replacement Style Lacesother20.0%$3.000.3%1415.60.90×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$20489.50%21
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $1,488 (7.30x)