MAC and Cheese

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$66.51

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $59.52 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.93%

243 openings, odds method

Variance

27.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

159 openings · below min

30 days

243 openings · below min

since tracking started

243 openings · below min

-0.5%178.8%358.0%

Small sample. 243 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	114.27%±243.3	—	odds
7d	159	85.99%±81.9	—	odds
30d	243	70.93%±66.2	—	odds
All	243	70.93%±66.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 243 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MacBook Pro, Space Black, 16 Inch, M3 Maxother	1 in 500	$4,800	16.1%	1	0.5	—
Apple 2023 MacBook Pro Laptop M3 Max chip with 14‑core CPU, 30‑core GPU: 16.2-inch Liquid Retina XDR Display, 36GB Unified Memory, 1TB SSD Storageother	1 in 333	$3,500	17.6%	0	0.7	—
Apple 2023 iMac All-in-One Desktop Computer with M3 chip: 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 24-inch Retina Display, 8GB Unified Memory, 512GB SSD Storageother	1 in 200	$1,700	14.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
Parmesan Cheese Wheel 80 lb, Parmigiano Reggianoother	1 in 200	$1,680	14.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
Apple 2023 iMac All-in-One Desktop Computer with M3 chip: 8-core CPU, 8-core GPU, 24-inch Retina Display, 8GB Unified Memory, 256GB SSD Storageother	1 in 200	$1,264	10.6%	2	1.2	1.65×
Parmigiano Reggiano PDO, Half wheel, seasoned 24 months 40 lbsother	1 in 100	$804	13.5%	3	2.4	1.23×
Easy Cheese Cheddar Cheese Snack, 12 - 8 oz Cansother	1 in 33	$80.00	4.0%	4	7.3	0.55×
Genuine Pecorino Romano Locatelli Cheese 2 lbother	1 in 25	$59.00	4.0%	7	9.7	0.72×
Kraft Cheese American Singles Yellow 8 OZ Pack of 3other	1 in 20	$38.00	3.2%	18	12.2	1.48×
Kraft Deluxe Original Mac & Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Dinner Microwavable Dinner, 8 ct Box, 2.39 oz Cupsother	1 in 20	$10.00	0.8%	7	12.2	0.58×
Velveeta Original Cheese Sauce Pouches, 3 ct Box with 4 oz Pouchesother	1 in 20	$5.00	0.4%	9	12.2	0.74×
Kraft Original Mac & Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Dinner, 7.25 oz Boxother	75.0%	$1.00	1.3%	192	182.3	1.05×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.