Maccas
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$54.40
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $48.68 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.90%
184 openings, odds method
Variance
6.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 184 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HME EOS HS6200 Drive Thru Headsetother | 1 in 100 | $954 | 19.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| Travis Scott x McDonald's Cj Smile Hoodie Brown (US S)other | 1 in 100 | $668 | 13.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| Travis Scott x McDonalds Chicken Nugget Body Pillowother | 1 in 100 | $546 | 11.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| Travis Scott x McDonalds Clutch Bagother | 1 in 50 | $375 | 15.4% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| McDonald's x Evangelion Value Set Figureother | 1 in 40 | $145 | 7.4% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| Kerwin Frost x McDonald's Fry Guy Clog Cobalt Blueother | 1 in 50 | $100 | 4.1% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.63× |
| McDonald's x Kerwin Frost McNugget Buddies McNugget Legend Chase Figureother | 1 in 25 | $96.00 | 7.9% | 11 | 7.4 | 1.49× |
| Travis Scott x McDonald's Crew T-shirt Red (US XL)other | 1 in 20 | $89.00 | 9.1% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| 2025 McDonald's x Pokémon Set of 10 Packsother | 1 in 15 | $75.00 | 10.0% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× |
| McDonald's Red Event Visorother | 10.0% | $5.00 | 1.0% | 13 | 18.4 | 0.71× |
| McDonalds Happy Meal Boxother | 15.0% | $1.00 | 0.3% | 28 | 27.6 | 1.01× |
| Kraft American Sliced Cheeseother | 50.0% | $0.12 | 0.1% | 93 | 92.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.40 | 89.49% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $954 (17.54x)