Manga Madness

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$0.79

Advertised RTP

88.96%

EV $0.70 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.88%

9,567 openings, odds method

Variance

38.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 101

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

100.40%±38.201,006 openings

7 days

101.68%±13.208,428 openings

30 days

97.88%±12.399,567 openings

since tracking started

97.88%±12.399,567 openings

61.5%100.5%139.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,006	100.40%±38.2	+0.6σ	odds
7d	8,428	101.68%±13.2	+1.9σ	odds
30d	9,567	97.88%±12.4	+1.4σ	odds
All	9,567	97.88%±12.4	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,579 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother	1 in 1,250	$99.00	11.3%	10	7.7	1.30×
Funko Pop! Animation Demon Slayer Muichiro Tokito 2022 Funkon Exclusive Figure #1193other	1 in 3,333	$93.00	4.0%	0	2.9	0.00×
Bandai Proplica Demon Slayer Kimetsu no Yaiba Tanjiro Kamado Nichirin Swordother	1 in 10,000	$87.00	1.2%	0	1.0	—
Vans Sk8-Hi One Piece Punk Hazardother	1 in 2,000	$83.00	5.9%	8	4.8	1.67×
Weiss Schwarz Attack on Titan CCG Volume 2 Booster Boxother	1 in 1,000	$71.00	10.1%	11	9.6	1.15×
The Complete Art of Fullmetal Alchemistother	1 in 800	$27.07	4.8%	14	12.0	1.17×
Premium Crunchyroll Membership Gift Cardother	1 in 667	$22.99	4.9%	18	14.4	1.25×
Sailor Moon Plushyother	1 in 500	$20.00	5.7%	21	19.2	1.10×
Naruto Hanging Poster Canvasother	1 in 400	$17.15	6.1%	31	23.9	1.29×
One Piece: East Blue 1-2-3other	1 in 333	$12.50	5.3%	31	28.7	1.08×
Dragonball Z Super Ultra Instinct Men's Black Crew Neck Teeother	1 in 333	$10.00	4.3%	36	28.7	1.25×
Bioworld Dragon Ball Z Athletic Crew Socks for Menother	1 in 200	$7.50	5.3%	43	47.9	0.90×
iPhone 15 Death Note Phone Casecontainer	1 in 133	$5.50	5.9%	83	71.8	1.16×
Trends International Demon Slayer: Mugen Train Wall Posterother	1 in 100	$3.00	4.3%	94	95.8	0.98×
Attack on Titan Premier Bookmarkother	1 in 100	$1.00	1.4%	104	95.8	1.09×
Hunter X Hunter Gon Freecss Metal Keychainother	15.0%	$0.48	10.2%	1,438	1436.8	1.00×
My Hero Academia- Ochaco #1 Buttonother	30.0%	$0.20	8.5%	2,852	2873.7	0.99×
Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Stickerother	50.2%	$0.01	0.7%	4,785	4804.3	1.00×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother$0.79$99.00125.3x21h

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother$0.79$99.00125.3x1d

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother$0.79$99.00125.3x2d

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother$0.79$99.00125.3x3d

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother$0.79$99.00125.3x4d

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue Figureother$0.79$99.00125.3x5d

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue FigureotherPoeskak$0.79$99.00125.3x5d

MediCos JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 4: Chozo Kado Jotaro Kujo Super Action Statue FigureotherXineart$0.79$99.00125.3x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

My Hero Academia- Ochaco #1 Buttonother$0.79$0.200.25x51m

Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Stickerother$0.79$0.010.01x51m

Hunter X Hunter Gon Freecss Metal Keychainother$0.79$0.480.61x51m

Trends International Demon Slayer: Mugen Train Wall Posterother$0.79$3.003.80x51m

Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Stickerother$0.79$0.010.01x51m

My Hero Academia- Ochaco #1 Buttonother!dxstyxz$0.79$0.200.25x51m

Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Stickerother$0.79$0.010.01x1h

My Hero Academia- Ochaco #1 Buttonother$0.79$0.200.25x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.79	88.96%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $99.00 (125.3x)