Mario vs Sonic
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$69.21
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $61.93 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
111.53%
139 openings, odds method
Variance
50.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 139 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tag Heuer Formula 1 x Mario Kartother | 1 in 500 | $9,800 | 31.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Tag Heuer Connected x Super Marioother | 1 in 333 | $3,760 | 18.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Puma RS X3 Sega Sonic the Hedgehog (US Men's 11)other | 1 in 200 | $795 | 6.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Higround x Sonic the Hedgehog Adventure Keyboardother | 1 in 100 | $612 | 9.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| Higround x Sonic the Hedgehog Green Hill Zone Mousepadother | 1 in 100 | $380 | 6.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Bearbrick x Sonic The Hedgehog 400other | 1 in 100 | $275 | 4.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Casio G-Shock x Super Mario Bros.other | 1 in 50 | $250 | 8.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| Nintendo Switch/Lite Super Mario 3D All-Stars Video Gameother | 1 in 100 | $179 | 2.9% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.16× |
| LEGO Super Mario Piranha Plant 71426other | 1 in 20 | $86.00 | 6.9% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× |
| Funko Pop! Games Sonic The Hedgehog Tails (Flocked) Target Con Exclusive Figure #641other | 1 in 33 | $64.00 | 3.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| Sonic Frontiers - PlayStation 5other | 1 in 20 | $19.99 | 1.6% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| Item Boxother | 80.0% | $0.50 | 0.6% | 115 | 111.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $69.21 | 89.49% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $3,760 (54.33x)