Marketplace GTI
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$580.18
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $519.26 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
234.31%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
48.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Volkswagen Golf R 4Motionother | 1 in 500 | $58.9K | 22.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Volkswagen Golf GTI 380 Sother | 1 in 333 | $42.4K | 24.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2017 Volkswagen Golf GTI Sother | 1 in 200 | $22.7K | 21.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2017 Volkswagen Golf TSI SEother | 1 in 200 | $17.8K | 17.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| 2007 Volkswagen Sharanother | 1 in 200 | $2,750 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2003 Volkswagen Beetleother | 1 in 200 | $2,000 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2002 Volkswagen Passatother | 1 in 200 | $1,200 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2000 Volkswagen Golf MK4other | 1 in 100 | $800 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Callaway Golf Men’s Strata Complete Setother | 1 in 100 | $480 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Volkswagen GTI Badgeother | 10.0% | $80.00 | 1.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| Gran Turismo 7 (PS5)other | 10.0% | $59.00 | 1.1% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.52× |
| Carbon Fiber Volkswagen Emblemother | 20.0% | $37.50 | 1.4% | 12 | 9.2 | 1.30× |
| Volkswagen TDI Badgeother | 55.0% | $14.20 | 1.5% | 19 | 25.3 | 0.75× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $580 | 89.50% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $42.4K (73.08x)