Masterpiece in Motion

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$10.21

Advertised RTP

89.43%

EV $9.13 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.28%

220 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

26 openings · below min

7 days

79.53%±23.55185 openings

30 days

77.28%±21.59220 openings

since tracking started

77.28%±21.59220 openings

55.0%120.3%185.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	26	122.22%±62.8	—	odds
7d	185	79.53%±23.5	−0.8σ	odds
30d	220	77.28%±21.6	−1.1σ	odds
All	220	77.28%±21.6	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
LEGO Art Mona Lisa Building Setother	1 in 133	$125	10.3%	1	1.6	0.61×
The Last Supper by Leonardo Davinci 24" x 48"other	1 in 133	$120	9.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
The Storm on the Sea of Galilee by Rembrandt van Rijn The World Classic Art Reproductionother	1 in 100	$75.00	8.2%	4	2.2	1.82×
Rotating Paint Brush Holderother	1 in 50	$30.00	6.6%	3	4.4	0.68×
The Old Guitarist by Pablo Picasso Abstract Canvas Wall Artother	1 in 40	$22.75	6.2%	3	5.5	0.55×
Clarkson Potter Show Me The Monetother	1 in 40	$20.00	5.5%	6	5.5	1.09×
Starry Night by Vincent Van Gogh Jigsaw Puzzle 1000 Pieceother	1 in 40	$18.00	4.9%	2	5.5	0.36×
Acrylic Paint Setother	1 in 40	$16.00	4.4%	6	5.5	1.09×
Vincent Van Gogh: The Complete Paintingsother	1 in 40	$13.00	3.6%	3	5.5	0.55×
8 Inch Artists Wooden Manikinother	1 in 20	$9.00	4.9%	12	11.0	1.09×
Professional Artist Paint Brush Set of 12other	1 in 20	$7.00	3.8%	9	11.0	0.82×
Painting Knifeother	1 in 20	$7.00	3.8%	9	11.0	0.82×
Multi-Purpose Drawing Parallel Rolling Rulerother	1 in 13	$6.00	4.9%	24	16.5	1.45×
Almost Like Picasso Notebookother	10.0%	$5.70	6.2%	25	22.0	1.14×
Prismacolor Premier Pencil Sharpenerother	10.0%	$5.00	5.5%	21	22.0	0.95×
12 inch Artist Easel Standother	12.5%	$4.00	5.5%	32	27.5	1.16×
Paint Paletteother	12.5%	$3.00	4.1%	24	27.5	0.87×
Kneaded Eraserother	15.5%	$1.00	1.7%	36	34.1	1.06×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Professional Artist Paint Brush Set of 12other$10.21$7.000.69x7h

Kneaded Eraserother$10.21$1.000.10x7h

Prismacolor Premier Pencil Sharpenerother$10.21$5.000.49x7h

Professional Artist Paint Brush Set of 12other$10.21$7.000.69x7h

Painting Knifeother$10.21$7.000.69x7h

12 inch Artist Easel StandotherFallenStar$10.21$4.000.39x7h

Clarkson Potter Show Me The Monetother$10.21$20.001.96x8h

Acrylic Paint Setother$10.21$16.001.57x8h

Multi-Purpose Drawing Parallel Rolling Rulerother$10.21$6.000.59x8h

The Old Guitarist by Pablo Picasso Abstract Canvas Wall ArtotherUnique Skunk$10.21$22.752.23x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.43%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.21	89.43%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —