Merry Moments

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$42.83

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $38.33 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.21%

78 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

77 openings · below min

30 days

78 openings · below min

since tracking started

78 openings · below min

-0.5%88.8%178.0%

Small sample. 78 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	24.52%±152.9	—	odds
7d	77	71.83%±30.2	—	odds
30d	78	71.21%±30.0	—	odds
All	78	71.21%±30.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
LEGO Creator Expert Gingerbread Houseother	1 in 18	$260	37.6%	2	4.3	0.46×
Shatterproof Christmas Ball Ornaments Setother	1 in 18	$100	14.5%	2	4.3	0.46×
The Original World's Largest Gummy Bearother	1 in 18	$60.00	8.7%	6	4.3	1.39×
Warm White Christmas Tree Lightsother	1 in 18	$30.00	4.3%	6	4.3	1.39×
Tiny Toblerone Advent Calendarother	1 in 18	$30.00	4.3%	6	4.3	1.39×
Lindt Gourmet Chocolate Truffles Gift Boxother	1 in 18	$25.20	3.6%	4	4.3	0.92×
Wilton Cookie Cutters Setother	1 in 18	$25.00	3.6%	5	4.3	1.16×
Women's Christmas Kitchen Apronother	1 in 18	$22.00	3.2%	2	4.3	0.46×
Sherpa Red and Black Buffalo Plaid Christmas Throw Blanketother	1 in 18	$20.00	2.9%	5	4.3	1.16×
Taylors of Harrogate Assorted Specialty Teas Boxother	1 in 18	$20.00	2.9%	8	4.3	1.85×
Christmas Santa Claus & Snowman Snow Globesother	1 in 18	$17.00	2.5%	7	4.3	1.62×
Tealight Candle Holders for Christmasother	1 in 18	$16.75	2.4%	3	4.3	0.69×
Bright 36 Gift Bowsother	1 in 18	$14.00	2.0%	3	4.3	0.69×
Home For The Holidays Coloring Bookother	1 in 18	$12.00	1.7%	6	4.3	1.39×
Jumbo Christmas Stockingother	1 in 18	$11.00	1.6%	3	4.3	0.69×
Merry Christmas Rectangle Pillow Coverother	1 in 18	$10.00	1.4%	5	4.3	1.16×
Christmas Elf Knitted Beanieother	1 in 18	$9.50	1.4%	2	4.3	0.46×
Santa Claus Charadesother	1 in 18	$8.00	1.2%	3	4.4	0.68×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.