Midnight Sleigh Drop
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$0.25
Advertised RTP
88.24%
EV $0.22 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.95%
53.2K openings, odds method
Variance
29.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applebee's Gift Cardother | 1 in 500 | $25.00 | 22.7% | 102 | 106.3 | 0.96× |
| FIFA Water Bottleother | 1 in 333 | $12.00 | 16.3% | 173 | 159.5 | 1.08× |
| Prada Pinpin | 1 in 200 | $5.00 | 11.3% | 257 | 265.8 | 0.97× |
| Stress Ballother | 1 in 200 | $2.30 | 5.2% | 261 | 265.8 | 0.98× |
| AirTag Holderother | 1 in 13 | $1.00 | 36.3% | 4,216 | 4253.4 | 0.99× |
| Tea Bagother | 90.5% | $0.02 | 8.2% | 48,159 | 48117.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.24%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.25 | 88.24% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $25.00 (100.0x)