MLB Collector

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$63.64
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $56.95 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.84%
132 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
93.42%±15.41126 openings
30 days
91.84%±15.06132 openings
since tracking started
91.84%±15.06132 openings
76.0%92.8%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d12693.42%±15.4+0.5σodds
30d13291.84%±15.1+0.3σodds
All13291.84%±15.1+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 132 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani Fanatics Authentic 50/50 Club Framed 20" x 24" Season Record Collage with Pieces of Game-Used Dirt and Baseball - Limited Edition of 500other1 in 100$3305.8%11.30.76×
2024 Bowman Chrome Baseball Factory Sealed Hobby Boxother1 in 80$3086.8%21.71.21×
Autographed New York Yankees Jasson Dominguez Fanatics Authentic Baseball & Mahogany Baseball Display Casecontainer1 in 67$2626.9%22.01.01×
2024 Bowman Baseball Factory Sealed Display Boxother1 in 40$1757.7%03.30.00×
2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Logofractor Edition Factory Sealed Mega Boxother1 in 36$1205.8%93.62.48×
Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani Fanatics Authentic 50/50 Club Crystal Baseball with Game-Used Dirtother1 in 33$99.005.2%84.02.02×
Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani Fanatics Authentic 2021 AL MVP Framed 15" x 17" Collage with a Piece of Game-Used Ballother1 in 33$90.004.7%44.01.01×
Chicago Cubs Seiya Suzuki Fanatics Authentic Framed 15" x 17" Impact Player Collage with a Piece of Game-Used Baseball - Limited Edition of 500other1 in 32$80.004.4%14.10.24×
Philadelphia Phillies Tokens and Icons Game-Used Baseball Yarn Braceletother1 in 30$64.003.7%84.41.84×
2024 Topps Baseball Factory Sealed Complete Setother1 in 29$60.003.7%24.60.43×
2024 Topps Baseball Factory Sealed Hobby Edition Complete Setother1 in 29$60.003.7%74.61.52×
2024 Bowman Chrome Baseball Factory Sealed Mega Boxother1 in 20$45.004.0%96.61.36×
2024 Topps Chrome Baseball Factory Sealed Value Boxother1 in 17$40.004.2%57.90.63×
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers 12'' Player Standee Desktop Displayother10.3%$35.006.3%1013.60.74×
2023 Topps Chrome Baseball Factory Sealed Value Boxother1 in 13$35.004.6%129.91.21×
New York Yankees Lou Gehrig Funko Pop! Deluxe #21 Vinyl Figureother10.3%$35.006.3%813.60.59×
Men's San Diego Padres Nike Brown Cooperstown Collection Pro Snapback Hatother12.5%$34.007.5%1416.50.85×
Boston Red Sox Fenway Park Game-Used Dirt Bottleother20.0%$25.008.8%3026.41.14×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$63.6489.49%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —