Momentum
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$231.32
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $207.03 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.07%
292 openings, odds method
Variance
34.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 292 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 292 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Suzuki Hayabusaother | 1 in 500 | $22.9K | 22.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Suzuki Boulevard C50other | 1 in 333 | $11.2K | 16.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Yamaha YZF-R3other | 1 in 200 | $6,600 | 15.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.05× |
| Cannondale Habit 3 Alloy Mountain Bikeother | 1 in 67 | $3,660 | 26.5% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| Razor MX650 Dirt Rocket Electric-Powered Dirt Bikeother | 1 in 67 | $1,056 | 7.7% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× |
| Mongoose Impasse Full Suspension Mountain Bikeother | 1 in 50 | $670 | 6.5% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.68× |
| Huffy Stone Mountain Hardtail Mountain Bike, 26 Inch, Deep Sea Glossother | 1 in 50 | $325 | 3.1% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.51× |
| Supreme Tonal Box Logo Skateboard Deck Redother | 1 in 50 | $130 | 1.3% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| CaDA Wheel 63 x 42 & CaDA Tire 80 x 44 ZR | JM3049 & JR4018other | 90.0% | $1.50 | 0.7% | 270 | 262.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $231 | 89.50% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $11.2K (48.42x)