Monaco Case
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$1,374.58
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $1,230.24 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
218.22%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
28.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 49
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patek Philippe 5811/1G Nautilusother | 1 in 2,000 | $215K | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Patek Philippe 5711/1A-011 Nautilus 5711 Stainless Steel (Silver Dial)other | 1 in 1,000 | $138K | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2023 Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD LTZother | 1 in 667 | $67.1K | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| LEON MARTENS BRACELET 1111019513other | 1 in 400 | $23.7K | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Eternal Gold Snake Bracelet In Yellow Goldother | 1 in 200 | $19K | 7.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| Rolex Milgaussother | 1 in 200 | $16K | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Louis Vuitton Speedy P9 Bandoulière 40 Monogram Leather Brown Monogramother | 1 in 200 | $12.6K | 5.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| 3.00CTW FLOWER STUD DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLDother | 1 in 133 | $9,000 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra 5 Motif Bracelet Onyx 18K Yellow Goldother | 1 in 133 | $7,500 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 1.00CTW SOLITAIRE DIAMOND STUD EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLDother | 1 in 133 | $5,500 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphiteother | 95.7% | $441 | 34.3% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,375 | 89.50% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $19K (13.79x)