MTG Fanatic

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$131.50

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $117.69 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

32.90%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

24.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

-0.5%122.8%246.0%

Small sample. 28 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	39.32%±205.9	—	odds
30d	28	32.90%±182.5	—	odds
All	28	32.90%±182.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
1993 Magic The Gathering MTG Arabian Nights Bazaar Of Baghdad U3 L PSA 10 GEMother	1 in 2,000	$24K	10.2%	0	0.0	—
1994 Magic The Gathering MTG Antiquities Mishra's Workshop PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 10,000	$15K	1.3%	0	0.0	—
1993 Magic The Gathering MTG Arabian Nights Booster Pack PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 10,000	$12K	1.0%	0	0.0	—
1993 Magic The Gathering MTG Alpha Tranquility C G PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 333	$3,955	10.1%	0	0.1	—
1998 Magic The Gathering MTG Urza's Saga Sealed Foil Pack PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$2,400	10.2%	0	0.1	—
Foreign Limited: Starter Deckother	1 in 100	$1,200	10.2%	0	0.3	—
Portal Second Age Full Setother	1 in 40	$540	11.5%	0	0.7	—
Zendikar Full Setother	1 in 40	$389	8.3%	0	0.7	—
Legends Italian Boosterother	1 in 33	$330	8.4%	1	0.8	—
Torment Full Setother	1 in 20	$220	9.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
Dominaria United Set Booster Boxother	1 in 20	$175	7.4%	2	1.4	1.43×
Exodus Boosterother	1 in 13	$65.00	4.1%	2	2.1	0.95×
Mercadian Masques Boosterother	1 in 13	$42.00	2.7%	5	2.1	2.38×
Magic: The Gathering Foundations Collector Boosterother	10.0%	$23.00	2.0%	3	2.8	1.07×
Universes Beyond: Assassin's Creed: Starter Kitother	10.1%	$12.00	1.0%	6	2.8	2.12×
2023 Starter Kitother	12.5%	$10.00	1.1%	2	3.5	0.57×
Betrayers of Kamigawa Boosterother	12.5%	$5.25	0.6%	2	3.5	0.57×
Modern Horizons 2 Draft Boosterother	20.0%	$4.00	0.7%	5	5.6	0.89×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.