Music Enthusiast

A box on Cases.gg (Tech), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$27.29

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $24.42 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.38%

2,328 openings, odds method

Variance

14.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 33

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

54 openings · below min

7 days

100.28%±17.081,962 openings

30 days

103.38%±15.682,328 openings

since tracking started

103.38%±15.682,328 openings

51.0%154.5%258.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	54	154.46%±103.0	—	odds
7d	1,962	100.28%±17.1	+1.2σ	odds
30d	2,328	103.38%±15.7	+1.7σ	odds
All	2,328	103.38%±15.7	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,328 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Crosley CR1215A-WA Jukeboxother	1 in 500	$1,647	13.5%	7	4.7	1.50×
Enya Acoustic Electric Guitar Carbon Fiber X4 PRO Bundle (X4 PRO)other	1 in 500	$800	6.6%	0	4.7	0.00×
Yamaha Rydeen 5-Piece Drum Setother	1 in 333	$630	7.7%	10	7.0	1.43×
Shure SM7B Dynamic Vocal Microphoneother	1 in 333	$532	6.5%	8	7.0	1.15×
Squier Affinity Series Jazz Bassother	1 in 200	$340	7.0%	16	11.6	1.37×
Fender Acoustic Guitarother	1 in 200	$270	5.5%	20	11.6	1.72×
Fender FA-15 3/4 Scale Steel String Acoustic Guitarother	1 in 100	$255	10.4%	31	23.3	1.33×
Akai Professional MPK Mini Plus - USB MIDI Keyboard Controllerother	1 in 100	$215	8.8%	25	23.3	1.07×
Victrola Nostalgic 6-in-1 Bluetooth Record Player & Multimedia Centerother	1 in 100	$200	8.2%	27	23.3	1.16×
Boss RV-6 Digital Reverbother	1 in 100	$168	6.9%	20	23.3	0.86×
Fender Frontman 10G Guitar Ampother	1 in 100	$99.00	4.1%	22	23.3	0.95×
Karaoke Machine, Portable Bluetooth Speaker with Two Wireless Microphonesother	1 in 100	$74.79	3.1%	23	23.3	0.99×
Rated R - Red (Artist)other	1 in 100	$39.05	1.6%	27	23.3	1.16×
Kyser Quick-Change Guitar Capoother	1 in 100	$28.00	1.1%	23	23.3	0.99×
Bad Omens [Red LP]other	1 in 20	$24.04	4.9%	118	116.4	1.01×
Ernie Ball Regular Slinky Nickel Wound Electric Guitar Stringsother	1 in 20	$7.00	1.4%	110	116.4	0.95×
Dunlop Tortex Standard .73mm Yellow Guitar Pick, 12 Packother	1 in 20	$5.50	1.1%	118	116.4	1.01×
Guitar Pickother	75.0%	$0.50	1.5%	1,723	1746.0	0.99×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Crosley CR1215A-WA Jukeboxother$27.29$1,64760.35x8h

Crosley CR1215A-WA Jukeboxother$27.29$1,64760.35x4d

Crosley CR1215A-WA Jukeboxother$27.29$1,64760.35x5d

Crosley CR1215A-WA Jukeboxother$27.29$1,64760.35x7d

Yamaha Rydeen 5-Piece Drum Setother$27.29$63023.09x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Guitar Pickother$27.29$0.500.02x1h

Bad Omens [Red LP]other$27.29$24.040.88x1h

Guitar Pickother$27.29$0.500.02x1h

Guitar Pickother$27.29$0.500.02x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$27.29	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $1,647 (60.35x)