Nerf or Nothin
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$34.45
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $30.83 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.62%
241 openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 253 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NERF Lmtd League of Legends Jinx Fishbones Dart Drum Dart Blasterother | 1 in 250 | $780 | 10.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| NERF Aliens M41-A Blasterother | 1 in 125 | $522 | 13.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| NERF Halo Needler Light Up Dart-Firing Blaster Purpleother | 1 in 100 | $435 | 14.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| Nike KD 4 NERF (2024) US M 9.5other | 1 in 50 | $125 | 8.1% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| Crocs Classic Clog NERF Blaster Dart US M 10other | 1 in 50 | $120 | 7.8% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× |
| Travis Scott Cactus Jack Fortnite AR-Goosebumps Nerf Elite Dart Blasterother | 1 in 33 | $99.00 | 9.6% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× |
| Supreme Nerf Rival Takedown Blaster Pinkother | 1 in 29 | $82.00 | 9.3% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× |
| NERF N-Strike Elite Retaliator Blasterother | 1 in 13 | $29.00 | 7.1% | 12 | 19.0 | 0.63× |
| Nerf Elite Digital Target Blue/Orangeother | 10.0% | $20.00 | 6.5% | 24 | 25.3 | 0.95× |
| Nerf N-Strike Elite Series Tactical Vestother | 12.5% | $14.00 | 5.7% | 46 | 31.6 | 1.45× |
| Nerf Zipfire Combat Blasterother | 20.0% | $7.00 | 4.5% | 51 | 50.6 | 1.01× |
| Nerf Vortex Aero Howler Foam Ballother | 37.3% | $3.00 | 3.6% | 91 | 94.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.45 | 89.49% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $780 (22.64x)