NFL
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$4.87
Advertised RTP
89.37%
EV $4.35 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.08%
1,874 openings, odds method
Variance
22.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,874 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmetother | 1 in 200 | $300 | 34.5% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× |
| NFL Mini Metallic Hover Helmet - KCother | 1 in 133 | $65.00 | 11.2% | 23 | 14.1 | 1.64× |
| Riddell 32 Piece NFL Helmet Tracker Set - Gumball Size Helmets - All NFL Current Logo's - New 2023 Setother | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 11.5% | 27 | 18.7 | 1.44× |
| Madden NFL 25 - Xbox Series Xother | 1 in 133 | $46.00 | 7.9% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.07× |
| Buffalo Bills 30oz Insulated Stainless Steel Travel Mug Tumblerother | 1 in 100 | $34.00 | 7.8% | 15 | 18.7 | 0.80× |
| WILSON NFL Super Grip Composite Footballother | 1 in 100 | $30.00 | 6.9% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× |
| Packers Tabletop Stackers Block Gameother | 1 in 100 | $24.00 | 5.5% | 25 | 18.7 | 1.33× |
| UNO NFL Card Game for Kids & Adultsother | 1 in 100 | $13.00 | 3.0% | 20 | 18.7 | 1.07× |
| Dolphins Franklin Sports NFL Team Wristbandsother | 1 in 100 | $9.00 | 2.1% | 14 | 18.7 | 0.75× |
| Las Vegas Raiders Keychainother | 1 in 20 | $3.00 | 3.4% | 89 | 93.7 | 0.95× |
| Dallas Cowboys Keychainother | 1 in 14 | $1.00 | 1.6% | 120 | 131.2 | 0.91× |
| Turfother | 80.0% | $0.25 | 4.6% | 1,502 | 1499.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.87 | 89.37% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $300 (61.60x)