Nintendo Switch
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$35.67
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $31.92 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
120.45%
513 openings, odds method
Variance
47.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 513 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Edition Console HACSKAELEother | 1 in 500 | $5,280 | 33.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.95× |
| Nintendo Switch (OLED model) with White Joy-Conother | 1 in 125 | $450 | 11.3% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× |
| Nintendo Switch Lite - Coralother | 1 in 100 | $290 | 9.1% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× |
| Nintendo Switch Lite - Blueother | 1 in 100 | $285 | 8.9% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| Nintendo Switch Lite - Grayother | 1 in 100 | $285 | 8.9% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| Nintendo Switch Lite - Turquoiseother | 1 in 100 | $275 | 8.6% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| Joy-Con (L)/(R) - Pastel Purple/Pastel Greenother | 1 in 33 | $87.99 | 8.3% | 16 | 15.4 | 1.04× |
| Minecraft: Switch Edition - Nintendo Switchother | 1 in 33 | $32.99 | 3.1% | 8 | 15.4 | 0.52× |
| SanDisk 128GB microSDXC Card, Licensed for Nintendo Switchother | 1 in 33 | $22.00 | 2.1% | 13 | 15.4 | 0.84× |
| PowerA Joy Con Comfort Grips for Nintendo Switch - Blackother | 1 in 17 | $12.00 | 2.3% | 34 | 30.8 | 1.10× |
| Wrist Strap for Switchother | 20.0% | $4.00 | 2.5% | 102 | 102.6 | 0.99× |
| Thumb Stick Gripsother | 60.0% | $1.00 | 1.9% | 312 | 307.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.67 | 89.49% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $5,280 (148.0x)