Once in a Mewllion

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$153.87

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $137.71 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

203.73%

461 openings, odds method

Variance

63.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 133

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

349 openings · below min

30 days

461 openings · below min

since tracking started

461 openings · below min

-0.5%227.3%455.0%

Small sample. 461 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	5.21%±449.4	—	odds
7d	349	188.16%±83.3	—	odds
30d	461	203.73%±72.5	—	odds
All	461	203.73%±72.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 461 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Mewtwo #10 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 400	$19.8K	35.9%	2	1.2	1.74×
2002 Pokemon Expedition Holo Mew #19 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 200	$9,900	35.9%	9	2.3	3.90×
2010 Pokemon Heartgold & Soulsilver Triumphant Holo Mew #97 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 67	$1,650	18.0%	6	6.9	0.87×
2023 Pokemon SV Black Star Promo 151 Ultra Premium Collection Mew ex #53 PSA 10other	1 in 27	$140	3.8%	16	17.3	0.93×
Funko Pop! Games Pokemon Mewtwo (Flocked) SDCC Exclusive Figure #581other	1 in 33	$125	2.7%	11	13.8	0.80×
2020 Pokemon Battle Academy Mewtwo GX #31 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 25	$77.00	2.2%	19	18.4	1.03×
Crown Zenith Boosterother	1 in 17	$4.20	0.2%	30	27.7	1.08×
Paldean Fates Boosterother	1 in 17	$3.50	0.2%	27	27.7	0.98×
Lost Origin Boosterother	1 in 17	$3.45	0.2%	22	27.7	0.80×
Brilliant Stars Boosterother	1 in 13	$3.39	0.2%	38	34.6	1.10×
Fusion Strike Boosterother	1 in 13	$3.25	0.2%	38	34.6	1.10×
Twilight Masquerade Boosterother	1 in 13	$2.25	0.1%	29	34.6	0.84×
Play! Pokémon Prize Pack Series Four Boosterother	1 in 13	$2.20	0.1%	33	34.6	0.95×
Shrouded Fable Boosterother	1 in 13	$2.00	0.1%	22	34.6	0.64×
Clay Burst Boosterother	1 in 13	$1.05	0.1%	31	34.6	0.90×
McDonald's Match Battle 2022 Boosterother	1 in 13	$0.90	0.1%	31	36.9	0.84×
Paldea Evolved Fun Pack (3 Cards)other	1 in 13	$0.60	0.0%	51	36.9	1.38×
Trick or Trade 2024 BOOsterother	1 in 13	$0.37	0.0%	46	36.9	1.25×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC.