Only Farms

A box on Cases.gg (Outdoor), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$32.66

Advertised RTP

89.47%

EV $29.22 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

106.24%

71 openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

71 openings · below min

30 days

71 openings · below min

since tracking started

71 openings · below min

-0.5%105.8%212.0%

Small sample. 71 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	62.70%±148.5	—	odds
7d	71	106.24%±55.7	—	odds
30d	71	106.24%±55.7	—	odds
All	71	106.24%±55.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Razor Dirt Quad Electric Four-Wheeled Off-Road Vehicle - Blackother	1 in 200	$825	14.1%	1	0.4	—
Tractor, Excavator & Bulldozer, 24V, Orangeother	1 in 200	$418	7.2%	0	0.4	—
ARIAT men's Hybrid Venttek Western Bootother	1 in 100	$260	8.9%	1	0.7	—
Walking Horse with Easy Rolling Wheelsother	1 in 100	$240	8.2%	0	0.7	—
Carhartt Men's Loose Fit Washed Duck Insulated Active Jacketother	1 in 100	$160	5.5%	1	0.7	—
WILDGAME INNOVATIONS Quick-Set 225 lb Game Feederother	1 in 100	$156	5.3%	1	0.7	—
45" Long Galvanized Steel Livestock Feeding Troughother	1 in 50	$156	10.7%	2	1.4	1.41×
150 Pcs 6.3 Inch Screaming Rubber Chicken Toyother	1 in 50	$79.00	5.4%	1	1.4	0.70×
Farming Simulator 22 - Xbox Oneother	1 in 50	$62.00	4.2%	2	1.4	1.41×
Colorado Saddlery Kid's Lariat \| Pro Feel Lassoother	1 in 25	$45.00	6.2%	2	2.8	0.70×
Squishy Pig Toyother	1 in 20	$37.00	6.3%	4	3.6	1.13×
Learning Resources Farm Animal Counters - 60 Piecesother	1 in 20	$31.67	5.4%	4	3.6	1.13×
Screaming Goat Buttonother	1 in 20	$25.00	4.3%	2	3.6	0.56×
Cow Stuffed Animalother	1 in 20	$16.98	2.9%	2	3.6	0.56×
Classic Western Felt Cowboy Hatother	1 in 20	$14.00	2.4%	4	3.6	1.13×
World of Eric Carle, Around the Farmother	1 in 20	$10.50	1.8%	2	3.6	0.56×
Indestructibles: Hello, Farm!other	1 in 20	$6.00	1.0%	3	3.6	0.85×
$0.10 Voucherother	50.0%	$0.10	0.2%	39	35.5	1.10×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.