Pen & Paper

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$17.37

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $15.54 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.97%

671 openings, odds method

Variance

15.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 57

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94 openings · below min

7 days

92.14%±35.66467 openings

30 days

80.97%±29.75671 openings

since tracking started

80.97%±29.75671 openings

20.5%100.8%181.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	94	100.64%±79.5	—	odds
7d	467	92.14%±35.7	+0.1σ	odds
30d	671	80.97%±29.7	−0.6σ	odds
All	671	80.97%±29.7	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 671 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Montblanc Meisterstück Platinum Line Hommage à W.A. Mozart Ballpoint Pen (small size)other	1 in 133	$650	31.4%	2	5.0	0.40×
Lamy 2000 black - elegant Fountain Pen in robust fibreglass barrel - 14 ct. gold nib, partially platinum-plated - nib size Fother	1 in 100	$310	19.9%	6	6.7	0.89×
Faber-Castell Ambition Coconut Wood Rollerball Penother	1 in 100	$245	15.8%	12	6.7	1.79×
LEUCHTTURM1917 Bullet Journal Stealth Collector's Set - All Black Official BuJo Notebook, Drehgriffel Pen, and Pen Loopother	1 in 67	$90.00	8.7%	9	10.1	0.89×
LEUCHTTURM1917 - Notebook Hardcover Medium A5-251other	1 in 40	$25.00	4.0%	17	16.8	1.01×
Sharpie Color Burst Permanent Marker Setother	1 in 40	$21.00	3.4%	20	16.8	1.19×
Classic Leather Notebook Journal, Softcover, Tuxedo Blackother	1 in 40	$20.00	3.2%	11	16.8	0.66×
Tombow 56189 Dual Brush Pen Art Markersother	1 in 40	$20.00	3.2%	19	16.8	1.13×
Rhodia #16 Wirebound Notepad 5.8" x 8.3" Dot Pad, Orange Coverother	1 in 20	$7.75	2.5%	31	33.6	0.92×
Clairefontaine Classic Wirebound Notebooksother	1 in 20	$6.00	1.9%	37	33.6	1.10×
3x Washi Tapeother	1 in 20	$3.80	1.2%	31	33.6	0.92×
Pen Loop Holder for Notebooksother	1 in 13	$2.58	1.2%	49	50.3	0.97×
ZUFECY Pen Holder Stand for Deskother	1 in 13	$2.10	1.0%	50	50.3	0.99×
Ink Cartridgesother	10.0%	$1.50	1.0%	70	67.1	1.04×
Pilot G2 Gel Rollerball Penother	10.0%	$1.00	0.6%	65	67.1	0.97×
Sticky Notesother	10.0%	$0.65	0.4%	83	67.1	1.24×
STAEDTKER Eraserother	10.8%	$0.55	0.4%	68	72.1	0.94×
Binder Clipother	15.0%	$0.10	0.1%	91	100.6	0.90×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Montblanc Meisterstück Platinum Line Hommage à W.A. Mozart Ballpoint Pen (small size)otherSavagePlays$17.37$65037.42x7h

Montblanc Meisterstück Platinum Line Hommage à W.A. Mozart Ballpoint Pen (small size)other$17.37$65037.42x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Binder Clipother$17.37$0.100.01x6h

Clairefontaine Classic Wirebound Notebooksother$17.37$6.000.35x6h

Binder Clipother$17.37$0.100.01x6h

Lamy 2000 black - elegant Fountain Pen in robust fibreglass barrel - 14 ct. gold nib, partially platinum-plated - nib size Fother$17.37$31017.85x6h

Pen Loop Holder for NotebooksotherEriksZ$17.37$2.580.15x6h

Sticky Notesother$17.37$0.650.04x7h

Binder Clipother$17.37$0.100.01x7h

Pen Loop Holder for Notebooksother$17.37$2.580.15x7h

Pilot G2 Gel Rollerball Penother$17.37$1.000.06x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.37	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $650 (37.42x)