Penny Pincher
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$1.22
Advertised RTP
88.79%
EV $1.08 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.82%
3,679 openings, odds method
Variance
18.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,679 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopping Cartother | 1 in 400 | $80.00 | 18.5% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.54× |
| Applebee's Gift Cardother | 1 in 133 | $25.00 | 17.3% | 29 | 27.6 | 1.05× |
| Apple EarPods Headphones with 3.5mm Plugother | 1 in 100 | $18.99 | 17.5% | 36 | 36.8 | 0.98× |
| Casio MQ24 Seriesother | 1 in 100 | $14.99 | 13.8% | 33 | 36.8 | 0.90× |
| Wired Headphonesother | 1 in 100 | $12.99 | 12.0% | 46 | 36.8 | 1.25× |
| Kraft Deluxe Original Mac & Cheese Macaroni and Cheese Dinner Microwavable Dinner, 8 ct Box, 2.39 oz Cupsother | 1 in 100 | $10.00 | 9.2% | 24 | 36.8 | 0.65× |
| United States Dollar Coinother | 10.0% | $1.00 | 9.2% | 388 | 367.9 | 1.05× |
| Empty Toilet Paper Rollother | 35.0% | $0.06 | 1.9% | 1,353 | 1287.6 | 1.05× |
| United States Pennyother | 50.0% | $0.01 | 0.5% | 1,765 | 1839.5 | 0.96× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.79%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.22 | 88.79% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $80.00 (65.57x)