Penthouse Case
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$44.45
Advertised RTP
89.48%
EV $39.77 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
147.39%
200 openings, odds method
Variance
12.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (98.47% – 196.30%, 200 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPad Pro, 13-inch, Space Black, 2TBother | 1 in 1,000 | $2,800 | 7.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Château Margaux 2010 (750ml) (Fake)other | 1 in 500 | $1,600 | 8.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| KitchenAid - Front Control Built-In Dishwasher with Stainless Steel Tubother | 1 in 500 | $1,200 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Breville BES870XL Espresso Machineother | 1 in 100 | $825 | 20.7% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.50× |
| JBL Professional 305P MkII 5-Inch 2-Way Powered, Active Monitor Speakers for Near Field Music Productionother | 1 in 67 | $360 | 13.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| 15 Piece High Carbon Stainless Steel Knife Block Setother | 1 in 50 | $225 | 11.3% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× |
| BELLA XL Electric Ceramic Titanium Griddleother | 10.0% | $64.00 | 16.1% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× |
| Living Room Rugother | 10.0% | $40.00 | 10.1% | 25 | 20.0 | 1.25× |
| Crypto Millionaire Loading... Ceramic Coffee Mugother | 35.0% | $8.00 | 7.0% | 64 | 70.0 | 0.91× |
| Empty Toilet Paper Rollother | 40.0% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 78 | 80.0 | 0.97× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:50 UTC | $44.45 | 89.48% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $2,800 (62.99x)