Phone Expert

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$89.96

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $80.51 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

52.08%

154 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

52.08%±37.02154 openings

30 days

52.08%±37.02154 openings

since tracking started

52.08%±37.02154 openings

-0.5%71.3%143.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.49% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (15.06% – 89.11%, 154 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	55.72%±86.8	—	odds
7d	154	52.08%±37.0	−2.0σ	odds
30d	154	52.08%±37.0	−2.0σ	odds
All	154	52.08%±37.0	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
OnePlus Open, 16GB RAM+512GB, Dual-SIM, Voyager Blackother	1 in 333	$1,570	5.9%	0	0.5	—
ASUS ROG Phone 8 Proother	1 in 222	$1,320	7.4%	0	0.7	—
Honor Magic6 Pro Dual SIM 512GB ROM + 12GB RAMother	1 in 154	$1,080	8.7%	1	1.0	1.00×
OnePlus 12,16GB RAM+512GB,Dual-SIMother	1 in 133	$980	9.1%	2	1.2	1.73×
Google Pixel 8other	1 in 125	$860	8.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
OnePlus 12Rother	1 in 111	$660	7.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
Honor 90 Dual-SIM 512GB ROM + 12GB RAMother	1 in 100	$480	6.0%	1	1.5	0.65×
Xiaomi Redmi Note 13 PRO 5G + 4G LTE (256GB + 8GB)other	1 in 67	$365	6.8%	1	2.3	0.43×
OnePlus 10T 8+128GB 5Gother	1 in 50	$324	8.0%	2	3.1	0.65×
Xiaomi Poco M6 Proother	1 in 33	$275	10.2%	3	4.6	0.65×
Samsung Galaxy A15other	1 in 20	$215	13.4%	4	7.7	0.52×
PopSocket Phone Walletother	10.2%	$25.00	3.2%	12	15.6	0.77×
Powerbankother	10.0%	$14.00	1.7%	18	15.4	1.17×
Wired Headphonesother	11.0%	$12.99	1.8%	17	16.9	1.00×
2 Pack USB C Charger Blockother	12.5%	$6.00	0.9%	19	19.3	0.99×
USB-C Cableother	12.5%	$5.00	0.8%	15	19.3	0.78×
Micro SD Cardother	12.5%	$1.00	0.2%	26	19.3	1.35×
Popsocketother	15.0%	$0.30	0.1%	33	23.1	1.43×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Honor Magic6 Pro Dual SIM 512GB ROM + 12GB RAMother$89.96$1,08012.01x1d

OnePlus 12,16GB RAM+512GB,Dual-SIMother$89.96$98010.89x1d

OnePlus 12,16GB RAM+512GB,Dual-SIMother$89.96$98010.89x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Micro SD Cardother$89.96$1.000.01x5h

Wired Headphonesother$89.96$12.990.14x5h

Powerbankother$89.96$14.000.16x5h

Popsocketother$89.96$0.300.00x5h

Wired Headphonesother$89.96$12.990.14x5h

Micro SD CardotherEriksZ$89.96$1.000.01x5h

Powerbankother$89.96$14.000.16x7h

USB-C Cableother$89.96$5.000.06x7h

Wired Headphonesother$89.96$12.990.14x7h

Micro SD CardotherFriendly Chipmunk$89.96$1.000.01x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$89.96	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $1,080 (12.01x)