Pokémon

A box on Cases.gg (Pokemon), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$87.20

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $78.04 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.68%

390 openings, odds method

Variance

24.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 83

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

54 openings · below min

7 days

276 openings · below min

30 days

390 openings · below min

since tracking started

390 openings · below min

-0.5%106.8%214.0%

Small sample. 390 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	54	82.02%±131.1	—	odds
7d	276	84.61%±58.0	—	odds
30d	390	73.68%±48.8	—	odds
All	390	73.68%±48.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 390 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Fendi x FRGMT x Pokemon FF Fabric Bag Baguette Pouchother	1 in 500	$5,160	13.2%	0	0.8	—
Fendi x FRGMT x Pokemon Nappa Leather Bag Baguetteother	1 in 1,000	$5,085	6.5%	0	0.4	—
Daniel Arsham x Pokemon Crystalized Pikachu Future Relic (Edition of 500)other	1 in 500	$4,800	12.3%	0	0.8	—
Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000%other	1 in 500	$2,520	6.5%	3	0.8	—
Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9other	1 in 200	$2,500	16.0%	2	1.9	1.03×
Fendi x FRGMT x Pokemon FF Fabric Card Holderother	1 in 333	$1,400	5.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Golden Bear Varsity Jacket - Blackother	1 in 200	$1,087	7.0%	1	1.9	0.51×
Baccarat x Pokemon Poke Ball Figureother	1 in 200	$600	3.8%	6	1.9	3.08×
Higround x Pokemon Poké Ball Basecamp 65 Keyboardother	1 in 133	$500	4.8%	4	2.9	1.37×
The Wand Company Pokémon Original Poké Ball Authentic Replicas - Original Poké Ballother	1 in 100	$500	6.4%	3	3.9	0.77×
Pokémon TCG 25th Anniversary Celebrations - Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 100	$445	5.7%	3	3.9	0.77×
100 Thieves x Pokémon Bulbasaur Ivysaur Vest - Blackother	1 in 100	$228	2.9%	2	3.9	0.51×
Funko Pop! Games Pokemon Mewtwo (Flocked) SDCC Exclusive Figure #581other	1 in 133	$125	1.2%	2	2.9	0.68×
Pokémon Legends: Arceus - US Versionother	1 in 100	$64.00	0.8%	0	3.9	0.00×
Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Inspired by Self-Portrait with Grey Felt Hat Journalother	1 in 50	$45.00	1.2%	6	7.8	0.77×
Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Plushother	1 in 20	$31.00	2.0%	21	19.5	1.08×
Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Bottle, Pokemonother	1 in 20	$19.00	1.2%	21	19.5	1.08×
Pokemon Cardsother	80.0%	$3.00	3.1%	316	312.0	1.01×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.