Polar Giftbox
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$4.67
Advertised RTP
89.36%
EV $4.17 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.11%
736 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 736 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatterproof Christmas Ball Ornaments Setother | 1 in 200 | $100 | 12.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× |
| Bestbuy $50 Giftcardother | 1 in 67 | $50.00 | 18.0% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| 50 Hareruya Sleeves (Gold)other | 1 in 33 | $35.00 | 25.2% | 17 | 22.1 | 0.77× |
| Applebee's Gift Cardother | 1 in 33 | $25.00 | 18.0% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× |
| Joyride Sweets Candy Sour Watermelon Wedgesother | 1 in 25 | $14.00 | 13.4% | 24 | 29.4 | 0.82× |
| Cucumber Dollother | 1 in 25 | $5.00 | 4.8% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× |
| Chocolate Barother | 15.0% | $1.50 | 5.4% | 120 | 110.4 | 1.09× |
| Green Appleother | 69.0% | $0.20 | 3.3% | 510 | 507.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.67 | 89.36% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —