Polo
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$400.95
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $358.85 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.01%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dior x KAWS Long-Sleeved Polo Shirt US Lother | 1 in 133 | $3,433 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Louis Vuitton Embroidered Cotton Pique Polo US Mother | 1 in 100 | $2,520 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Miu Miu Wool And Cashmere Polo Sweater Navy US 38other | 1 in 133 | $1,880 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Polo Ralph Lauren Yankees Bear Sweater US Mother | 1 in 50 | $1,190 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Gucci x Adidas Piquet Polo Shirt Blue US Sother | 1 in 33 | $682 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Moncler Logo Polo Shirt Black US Lother | 1 in 33 | $462 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Nike x Cactus Plant Flea Market Longsleeve Polo Natural (Asia Sizing) ASIA XLother | 1 in 33 | $458 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| adidas x Edison Chen Crochet Polo Shirt US Mother | 15.0% | $380 | 15.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Burberry Hartford Check Placket Polo US Mother | 1 in 13 | $378 | 7.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| Nike x Cactus Plant Flea Market Longsleeve Polo Multicolor (US L)other | 1 in 11 | $373 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Fear of God Essentials Fleece Polo (FW24) US Mother | 25.0% | $190 | 13.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| Polo Ralph Lauren Double-Knit Full-Zip Hoodie US XLother | 30.0% | $185 | 15.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $401 | 89.50% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —