Pony Show
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$415.36
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $371.74 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.79%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
89.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E GTother | 1 in 1,000 | $68.5K | 18.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Ford Bronco Big Bendother | 1 in 1,000 | $55K | 14.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Ford Mustang Ecoboost Premiumother | 1 in 1,000 | $48.4K | 13.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bendother | 1 in 500 | $38.5K | 20.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| 2024 Ford Maverick XLother | 1 in 500 | $31.9K | 17.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2016 Ford Mustang Ecoboost Premiumother | 1 in 500 | $17.1K | 9.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Ford Mustang Blue Neon Clockother | 1 in 20 | $228 | 3.1% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| Battery Tender 5 AMP 12V Battery Charger and Maintainerother | 1 in 20 | $125 | 1.7% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| Ford Logo Smart Backpackother | 1 in 20 | $88.00 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hatother | 1 in 20 | $28.00 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| Ford Mustang Car Mat Coaster Setother | 1 in 20 | $15.00 | 0.2% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| Ford Keychainother | 74.1% | $1.00 | 0.2% | 78 | 71.1 | 1.10× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $415 | 89.50% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $38.5K (92.69x)