Poser

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$33.96

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $30.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.40%

146 openings, odds method

Variance

4.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

71.08%±38.60122 openings

30 days

84.40%±35.29146 openings

since tracking started

84.40%±35.29146 openings

-0.5%83.0%166.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	59.35%±106.6	—	odds
7d	122	71.08%±38.6	−0.9σ	odds
30d	146	84.40%±35.3	−0.3σ	odds
All	146	84.40%±35.3	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Supreme Flags Skateboard Deck Multiother	1 in 200	$750	12.3%	1	0.7	—
Saint Laurent Nuxx Chain Wallet in Nylon Blackother	1 in 133	$540	13.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Vans Classic Slip-On VLT LX Lux Duct Tape Checkerboard US M 8.5other	1 in 100	$230	7.6%	3	1.5	2.05×
JBL FLIP 5other	1 in 100	$130	4.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
Thrasher Men's Sweatshirtother	1 in 33	$90.00	8.9%	4	4.4	0.91×
Y2K Baggy Jeansother	1 in 20	$47.00	7.7%	11	7.3	1.51×
Supreme Hav-A-Hank Bandanas (3 Pack) Multicolorother	1 in 20	$44.55	7.3%	3	7.3	0.41×
Bluboon Vintage Backpack Leather Trimother	1 in 20	$36.00	5.9%	5	7.3	0.68×
Zippo Street Art Lighterother	1 in 20	$26.00	4.3%	12	7.3	1.64×
Miabella Italian Solid 925 Sterling Silver 3.5mm Diamond Cut Cuban Link Curb Chainother	1 in 20	$24.00	3.9%	7	7.3	0.96×
Grayce Nirvana™ in Utero Angel Splatter T-Shirtother	1 in 13	$20.00	4.9%	9	11.0	0.82×
Rock Cover Phone Casecontainer	1 in 13	$17.00	4.2%	13	11.0	1.19×
Retro Oval Sunglassesother	1 in 13	$15.00	3.7%	10	11.0	0.91×
Pyramid America Metallica Posterother	1 in 13	$15.00	3.7%	9	11.0	0.82×
Hot Wheels Skate Tony Hawk Fingerboard & Removable Skate Shoes Multipackother	1 in 13	$12.00	3.0%	15	11.0	1.37×
Retro Embroidered Applique Iron-on Patchother	10.0%	$6.00	2.0%	17	14.6	1.16×
Ghost Hanger Skateboard Deck Displayother	10.0%	$5.50	1.8%	10	14.6	0.68×
Sally Hansen Hard as Nails Colorother	11.3%	$3.00	1.1%	17	16.4	1.04×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Supreme Flags Skateboard Deck Multiother$33.96$75022.08x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Ghost Hanger Skateboard Deck Displayother$33.96$5.500.16x8h

Hot Wheels Skate Tony Hawk Fingerboard & Removable Skate Shoes Multipackother$33.96$12.000.35x8h

Retro Embroidered Applique Iron-on Patchother$33.96$6.000.18x8h

Pyramid America Metallica Posterother$33.96$15.000.44x8h

Rock Cover Phone Casecontainer$33.96$17.000.50x8h

Retro Oval SunglassesotherEriksZ$33.96$15.000.44x8h

Pyramid America Metallica Posterother$33.96$15.000.44x12h

Grayce Nirvana™ in Utero Angel Splatter T-Shirtother$33.96$20.000.59x12h

Miabella Italian Solid 925 Sterling Silver 3.5mm Diamond Cut Cuban Link Curb Chainother$33.96$24.000.71x12h

Thrasher Men's Sweatshirtother$33.96$90.002.65x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$33.96	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $750 (22.08x)