Poser Luck
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$355.50
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $318.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.16%
54 openings, odds method
Variance
10.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 54 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Datejust 36 16014other | 1 in 100 | $7,900 | 24.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White (US 11)other | 1 in 50 | $5,794 | 36.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| Gucci Boutique Print Hooded Sweatshirt Off White (US M)other | 1 in 50 | $1,500 | 9.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Supreme Burberry Box Logo Tee White (US L)other | 1 in 20 | $630 | 9.9% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| Fear of God Essentials Sweatshort Light Heather Oatmeal US Sother | 1 in 20 | $437 | 6.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| Fender FA-15 3/4 Scale Steel String Acoustic Guitarother | 1 in 20 | $255 | 4.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| RockLove Crystal Rose Janna Staff Ringother | 20.0% | $85.00 | 5.3% | 15 | 10.8 | 1.39× |
| MILLA Heart Hoop Earringsother | 30.0% | $25.00 | 2.4% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× |
| Rose Flower Silver Ringother | 30.0% | $9.00 | 0.8% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.93× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $356 | 89.50% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $5,794 (16.30x)